At a time when college football in Florida has returned to relevancy, professional football in Florida is at an all-time low. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-8, and considering the suspension of WR Justin Blackmon, they probably were blown out during their bye week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-8, recalling the creamsicle days of 1985. And the Miami Dolphins are 4-4, but their entire locker room is under the microscope right now.
Richie Incognito as an adult Crash Coogan?
The Buccaneers will host the Dolphins on Monday Night Football, and the promo will focus on Veterans Day. But the persistent issues of dysfunction surrounding these teams will be the bigger talking point. If Jacksonville loses again, they will be lumped into the Florida swamp of embarrassing football. Actually, if Jacksonville wins, they still might be lumped into the MNF conversation. After all, the Jaguars changed their uniform scheme as a salute to their military fan base. Since the Buccaneers won Super Bowl XXXVII, the three Florida franchises have only won one playoff game (2007 Jaguars). Neither team has made the playoffs since the 2009 season, as the three teams have fired four coaches in that time (not including interim coaches). Jacksonville has a longstanding substance abuse problem at receiver (Blackmon, Jimmy Smith, Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, R. Jay Soward), Tampa Bay has a MRSA problem at their facility (Carl Nicks, Johnthan Banks, Lawrence Tynes), and the Dolphins have organizational issues that go back to the offseason Richie Incognito signed in Miami (RE: Jeff Ireland, Dez Bryant).
On to this week’s Gameplan. I released the Hypothesis Report: Revisited this week, so be sure to check it out!
THE GAMEPLAN FOR WEEK 10
2013 NFL Week 10 picks (6-7 in Week 9, +23 for 2013): WAS, ATL, BAL, DET, GB, IND, NYG, PIT, JAX, SF, HOU, DEN, NO, TB
— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) November 6, 2013
The Bye Week teams:
- The New England Patriots (7-2) are getting healthy on offense, but the defense is thinning out.
- The New York Jets (5-4) have alternated wins and losses all season, so hopefully they don’t lose their bye week by too much.
- The Cleveland Browns (4-5) will finish the season with Jason Campbell at QB and keep an eye on the AFC North divisional matchup.
- The Kansas City Chiefs will have two weeks to prepare for the next three games, against the two teams playing in the AFC West divisional matchup.
Redskins over Vikings: These two playoff teams from last season haven’t exactly picked up where their thrilling 2012 seasons left off. Redskins QB Robert Griffin III made the Vikings look bad in a 38-26 win last season. The Minnesota defense has been terrible in every game this season, especially against the pass. Washington has been poor on defense as well, which is good news for RB Adrian Peterson. But the musical chairs at QB has been a bad look for Minnesota, and with the Redskins blitzing all night long, don’t expect the Vikings to gain clarity on the position in this game.
Falcons over Seahawks: Since Atlanta eliminated Seattle from the postseason in January, Seattle has only lost once while Atlanta has only won twice. The game is in the Georgia Dome, and even with a depleted receiving corps, QB Matt Ryan has played well at home this season. Seattle is always a little shaky playing early on the East Coast, and Seattle hasn’t been sharp despite facing inferior competition the last two weeks. Atlanta should stack the box against RB Marshawn Lynch and bring extra rushers against QB Russell Wilson’s weak offensive line. Ryan needs some help from players such as RB Steven Jackson and WR Roddy White, but if he gets it, Atlanta is capable of pulling the upset.
Ravens over Bengals: The Ravens have already lost divisional games to Pittsburgh and Cleveland. They’ll be on postseason life support if they lose at home to the Bengals for the first time since 2009. The Bengals have been shaky on the road all season, and they were throttled 44-13 in Baltimore to open the 2012 season. The Ravens still stop the run well, and they have a fearsome pass rush. Baltimore hasn’t lost four straight games since John Harbaugh became head coach in 2008, but they need RB Ray Rice or WR Torrey Smith to score some points.
Lions over Bears: Many know about Detroit’s struggles at Lambeau Field, but the Lions haven’t done well at Soldier Field either, losing five straight in Chicago. Detroit dropped 40 points on the Bears at Ford Field in September, as RB Reggie Bush ran for 139 yards and a TD. The Chicago defense isn’t much better now than it was in September, and now OLB Lance Briggs is unavailable to help out against Bush. The Chicago offense has performed well on the road with backup QB Josh McCown, but QB Jay Cutler is coming back to keep the NFL’s second-best scoring offense clicking. The Lions are coming off the bye week, and as long as Stafford takes care of the ball, Detroit should take advantage of Chicago’s weak defense.
Packers over Eagles: The Packers are in the best spot possible to see what backup QB Seneca Wallace can do: at home against the NFL’s 32nd-ranked defense. Wallace was 1-6 as a starter with the Cleveland Browns, but he is at the controls of an offense with much better coaching and better personnel. Wallace still has some mobility, and he has only four career multi-INT games since being drafted in 2003. With the way rookie RB Eddie Lacy has performed of late, Green Bay should have little problem grounding and pounding. Green Bay shouldn’t want to find out if QB Nick Foles has anywhere close to an encore – they need to put a gameplan together that allows Wallace to move the chains and turn possessions into points.
Colts over Rams: Baltimore Colts vs. Los Angeles Rams? This rivalry goes back to the 1950s, and the Rams haven’t won in Indianapolis since 1986. With fringe starting QB Kellen Clemens calling signals for Saint Louis, it might be a longer time before the Rams win one on the road against the Colts. The Rams should run often against the Colts, as that is the best way to keep OLB Robert Mathis from taking over a game; RB Zac Stacy should have a nice game. This should be a good spot for Colts RB Trent Richardson to break out, but the way the Rams have been getting burned in the secondary this season suggests that QB Andrew Luck should have a better day throwing to WR T.Y. Hilton.
Giants over Raiders: The Giants are on a two-game winning streak, coming off of a bye week, and are staring at three straight home games. If the Giants are going to make a move in the NFC East, now is the time to get it started. Giants QB Eli Manning is 2-0 in his career against the Raiders, though he had the support of a strong run game in both wins. It would help him if RB Andre Brown could perform well in his season debut, but that’s not a safe bet considering New York’s blocking woes and Oakland’s strong play against the run this season. The Giants have taken advantage of poor passers in their two wins, and they get the worst passing offense the AFC has to offer in Oakland.
Steelers over Bills: This will be Bills WR Stevie Johnson’s first game against the Steelers since he dropped the game-winning TD pass in overtime in 2010. Johnson gets his shot at redemption, and he gets rookie QB EJ Manuel back as well. The Steelers are looking for redemption themselves after the worst defensive performance in franchise history in New England. The Bills are a run-heavy team, and the Steelers absolutely can’t stop the run this year. But Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is going up against a Buffalo secondary that has allowed the most TD passes in the NFL.
Jaguars over Titans: The Jaguars have beaten the Titans every year since 2009, and they are coming off of a bye. If they are going to get a win, it might as well be now. The Titans don’t have any glaring strengths offensively, so as long as Jacksonville doesn’t struggle with turnovers, Tennessee will let them hang around. Jacksonville needs to run as often as possible with RB Maurice Jones-Drew to keep the Tennessee blitz from having a major impact on the game. Jaguars QB Chad Henne has one win as a starter in Jacksonville, and it was against the Titans last year.
49ers over Panthers: These two franchises used to be division rivals when Carolina came into the league in 1995. 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh and Panthers head coach Ron Rivera were teammates with the Chicago Bears from 1987-1992. 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick and Panthers QB Cam Newton were both drafted in 2011, the same year Harbaugh and Rivera were hired. This will be the toughest road game Newton has played this season, and San Francisco’s defense matches up well with a thin Carolina offensive line. Points will be hard to come by, but the 49ers have the benefit of coming off the bye and being at home.
Texans over Cardinals: Interesting note: Houston lost in Arizona in 2009 28-21 after QB Matt Schaub threw a pick-six in a tie game late in the fourth quarter. Enter Case Keenum! It will be tough for Keenum to truly crack the Arizona defense without head coach Gary Kubiak and with RBs Arian Foster and Ben Tate banged up. Keenum has done a great job finding WRs Andre Johnson and rookie DeAndre Hopkins, and Arizona is vulnerable to TEs, so TE Garrett Graham could have a nice game if Keenum continues to protect the ball. Houston needs to force some turnovers against Arizona QB Carson Palmer, and there is no one on Arizona’s offensive line who can block DEs J.J. Watt and Antonio Smith.
Broncos over Chargers: The Mike McCoy Bowl! Denver QB Peyton Manning’s receivers are going to have a field day in San Diego. RB Knowshon Moreno leads the NFL in rushing TDs, and San Diego allows 4.9 yards per carry. McCoy, the former Denver offensive coordinator turned San Diego head coach, will face off against Denver defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio instead of head coach John Fox. QB Philip Rivers should continue his strong season, but it will be tough for the Chargers to remain balanced against a Denver defense allowing 3.4 yards per carry.
Saints over Cowboys: The Rob Ryan Bowl! The New Orleans defensive coordinator has had many reunion games this season, and now he and head coach Sean Payton welcome a Cowboys team that they are very familiar with from a personnel standpoint. Dallas won the last meeting in New Orleans in 2009, but the Saints have won the other seven of the past eight meetings, including a 34-31 overtime win in Dallas last season. The New Orleans defense has a weakness against the run, but Dallas seems allergic to running the ball this season. QB Drew Brees should find open receivers all over the field against a Dallas defense that has allowed the 2nd-most passing yards in the league.
Buccaneers over Dolphins: In this version of the original battle for Florida, there is a lot on the line. A Tampa Bay loss would mark the worst start for the Buccaneers since 1985. A Miami loss would be another blow to what has been a season full of distractions, one with realistic playoff aspirations. The Dolphins have already allowed the most sacks in the league, and now they are down two starting offensive linemen against a Buccaneers team that blitzes a lot. Tampa Bay is going to give their former Hurricanes RB, rookie Mike James, more chances to help them win than Miami will give their former Hurricanes RB, Lamar Miller.
-1SKILLZ