The 2013 NFL Hypothesis Report: Revisited

It’s the NFL midseason, and so I get to fall back and reassess some positions taken in The 2013 NFL Hypothesis Report.  For those wondering how I’m doing on game picks so far, I’m +23 after nine weeks.

I went only 6-7 on the Week 9 Gameplan, missing on Miami, Kansas City, Dallas, New York, Tennessee, Cleveland, and Indianapolis. Those seven games were decided by 38 points combined; close games that were undecided until the fourth quarter or later. Philadelphia defeated Oakland by 29 points.

As I go through the league, I’ll provide my original projections from September:

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (7-2; predicted: 12-4, 1st): QB Tom Brady is on pace for a career-low starter passer rating of 82.7 (completing only 57% of passes for 6.6 yards per throw and 13 TDs). He’s also been sacked 26 times, compared to 27 all of last season, a major concern with RT Sebastian Vollmer on injured reserve. But the rookie split end combination of WRs Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins have combined for eight TDs already; Brandon Lloyd had four all of last season. TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Danny Amendola, and RB Shane Vereen have struggled with injury this season, but they are all expected to be major contributors by December. The Patriots have given up a lot of yardage and no longer have the services of OLB Jerod Mayo or DT Vince Wilfork. But the pass rush has been better than usual (8.5 sacks for DE Chandler Jones, 24 in all for NE), the Patriots still win the turnover battle (third in NFL), and the pass defense has been the best in NE since 2006 (74.2 passer rating allowed).

New York Jets (5-4; predicted: 5-11, 3rd): Once again, the Jets have a top-ten defense in terms of yardage allowed (7th), led by the NFL’s best run defense (1st in yardage, allowing a league-low 3.1 yards per carry). The offense remains incredibly inconsistent, as rookie QB Geno Smith is completing 58% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt, only eight TD passes and 13 INTs. New York has also allowed 30 sacks. The Jets are 0-4 when they lose the turnover battle, and 5-0 when they win it. K Nick Folk has made all 23 FG attempts and all 14 PATs, while Smith, despite his shakiness, already has four game-winning drives this season.

Miami Dolphins (4-4; predicted: 10-6, 2nd): First, the good. The Dolphins have a strong pass rush, racking up 25 sacks already. Five defensive linemen have multiple sacks, and none of them are first-round DE Dion Jordan. Miami also has improved in the secondary, allowing a 76.6 passer rating (9 TDs, 11 INTs). Now, the bad. Miami’s offensive line and coaching staff was already a problem for football reasons. QB Ryan Tannehill has already been sacked 35 times, most in the league. Tannehill took 35 sacks all of last season! The Dolphins ignore the run despite RB Lamar Miller averaging 4.8 yards per carry so that they can get Tannehill sacked. WR Mike Wallace has one TD all season and has complained about his role. The conflict between OT Jonathan Martin and LG Richie Incognito is just another reflection of one of the most dysfunctional professional sports organizations in the 21st century.

Buffalo Bills (3-6; predicted: 3-13, 4th): Yes, the Bills have as many wins as I thought they’d have all season. Buffalo is second in the league in rushing attempts, but RB C.J. Spiller (102 carries, 4.7 yards per carry, one TD) has ceded a lot of touches to RB Fred Jackson (117 carries, 4.3 yards per carry, six TDs). Jackson has also been the preferred receiving back (245 yards to Spiller’s 47). The Bills have only allowed 3.9 yards per carry and two rushing TDs; Buffalo hasn’t allowed under 4.0 yards per carry since 2004, their last winning season. Rookie ILB Kiko Alonso has two sacks and four INTs already while leading the team in tackles. DE Mario Williams (11 sacks) leads a Bills pass rush that has 29 sacks, while safeties Aaron Williams and Jim Leonhard have three INTs each. But the Bills have already allowed 20 TD passes, most in the NFL.

AFC NORTH

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3; predicted: 12-4, 2nd): The Bengals have the 5th best defense in terms of yardage, but they’ll continue without DT Geno Atkins (six of team’s 25 sacks) and CB Leon Hall. The Bengals’ three losses have come when the team has lost the turnover battle, something that QB Andy Dalton (16 TD passes, 10 INTs) needs to get under control. Dalton is putting up big numbers in the passing game, completing 65% of his passes for 7.8 yards per throw, and it’s not just WR A.J. Green (57 catches, 862 yards, 15.1 yards per catch, five TDs). TEs Jermaine Gresham and rookie Tyler Eifert have combined for 60 catches and 628 receiving yards already, while rookie RB Giovani Bernard already has 628 yards and six TDs from scrimmage. Cincinnati needs to secure as much home-field advantage as possible. The Bengals have been shaky on the road, where all three of their losses have come along with narrow three-point victories at Buffalo and Detroit.

Cleveland Browns (4-5; predicted: 5-11, 4th): The Browns have allowed the 4th-fewest yards in the league, and they already have 31 sacks; ten defenders have multiple sacks. The Browns also allow only 3.6 yards per carry, but they have given up nine rushing TDs. I didn’t like the Trent Richardson trade initially, but that was mainly because of the lip service the coaching staff served up about running the offense through Richardson. It’s good that they got a first-round pick out of him, but RB Willis McGahee has been terrible (100 carries, 262 yards, 2.6 yards per carry, one TD). QB Brandon Weeden (5 TDs, 6 INTs, 21 sacks, 0-4 record as starter) has been outplayed by both of his backup QBs. QB Brian Hoyer (5 TDs, 3 INTs, 3-0 record as starter) has a torn ACL, but now QB Jason Campbell (5 TDs, 0 INTs, 1-1 record as starter) has shown that he can get the Browns through the season without an avalanche of demoralizing mistakes. TE Jordan Cameron leads all TEs in receptions, while WR Josh Gordon is on pace to go over 1,000 yards receiving as well. Richardson or McGahee, it’s clear that Cleveland’s inability to run the ball will be their biggest problem the rest of the season, at least until Campbell gets hurt again.

Baltimore Ravens (3-5; predicted: 12-4, 1st): As you can see, one of my two most disappointing teams. The biggest problem has been the Baltimore offensive line, especially in run blocking. Just to show how overvalued passing yards are, QB Joe Flacco is on pace to go over 4,000 yards passing (10 TDs, 9 INTs, 2,167 yards passing), but he’s taken 25 sacks. RB Ray Rice has fallen off in a major way (97 carries, 259 yards, 2.7 yards per carry, three TDs), and RB Bernard Pierce hasn’t been better (85 carries, 230 yards, 2.7 yards per carry, two TDs). The Ravens have always been a run-first team under head coach John Harbaugh, and now they are averaging a league-low 2.8 yards per run as a team. No one notices WR Torrey Smith’s breakout (36 catches, 707 yards, 19.6 yards per catch) because he only has one TD. The Ravens actually have a top-ten defense still, allowing only 3.7 yards per carry and one TD run. They also have 27 sacks, led by OLBs Terrell Suggs (nine) and Elvis Dumervil (5.5). But they are 0-3 when they have allowed more than 100 yards rushing, and they only have four INTs while allowing 14 TD passes.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6; predicted: 10-6, 3rd): For the first time since 2000, the Steelers don’t have a top-ten defense. This team really misses NT Casey Hampton (or, the production the team got from him, considering Hampton isn’t playing for anyone). In 2000, the Steelers allowed 105.8 rushing yards a game, which wasn’t that bad (ranked 12th). Pittsburgh used their 2001 first-round pick on Hampton, and for 12 years, the Steelers didn’t allow 100 yards rushing per game in any season. Now, the Steelers give up 131.9 yards rushing per game, which ranks 31st in the NFL. They gave up nine rushing TDs last season; they have allowed 12 already this season. Pittsburgh doesn’t get sacks either (only 13), while allowing an 89.4 passer rating. Defense isn’t even this team’s biggest problem, as they can’t run the ball either (three rushing TDs all season, only 3.5 yards per carry). WR Antonio Brown has been great (701 yards receiving), but QB Ben Roethlisberger (12 TD passes, 9 INTs) has already taken 31 sacks this season, one more than all of last season.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts (6-2; predicted: 8-8, 3rd): Any discussion of the Colts begins with QB Andrew Luck, who still isn’t the most efficient passer (7.0 yards per attempt, 58% completions) and still takes a lot of sacks, but has drastically improved his TD-INT ratio (13 TD passes, 3 INTs). And when the Colts’ 22nd-ranked defense puts Luck in a hole, any discussion of the Colts ends with Luck as well, as he has led three more game-winning drives (vs. Raiders, vs. Seahawks, at Houston). The Colts will finish their season without WR Reggie Wayne (38 catches, 503 yards, 2 TDs), marking the first time since December 1998 that the Colts won’t have Wayne or Marvin Harrison in a game. The Colts have also lost RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard and TE Dwayne Allen, while trade-acquisition RB Trent Richardson (89 carries, 248 yards, 3.0 yards per carry, two TDs) has been outplayed by RB Donald Brown (39 carries, 244 yards, 6.3 yards per carry, one TD). The Colts also allow 4.4 yards per run. WR T.Y. Hilton (533 yards on 34 catches, 15.7 yards per catch, five TDs) will be a major weapon going forward, while OLB Robert Mathis has already matched his career-high with 11.5 of the Colts’ 22 sacks.

Tennessee Titans (4-4; predicted: 9-7, 2nd): Tennessee spent major resources on the offensive line, drafting RG Chance Warmack in the first round, drafting C Brian Schwenke in the fourth round, and signing LG Andy Levitre away from Buffalo. The run game finally looked good at Saint Louis, but pass protection continues to be an issue, as QB Jake Locker has taken 16 of the team’s 22 sacks allowed. Locker also missed two games with an injury, and backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick failed to win starts against Kansas City and Seattle. A year after giving up 31 TD passes, the Titans have allowed only 7, the fewest in the league, while the Titans have 22 sacks, led by DT Jurrell Casey with 6. The Titans still get inconsistent production from RB Chris Johnson (138 carries, 3.7 yards per carry), while the team has allowed 4.4 yards per run and 10 rushing TDs.

Houston Texans (2-6; predicted: 13-3, 1st): I was off on the Texans more than any other team. They’re another team that relied heavily on production from the run game, and while RB Arian Foster has run well (121 carries, 545 yards, 4.5 yards per carry), he and RB Ben Tate have only one rushing TD each. Of course, it doesn’t help that QB Matt Schaub went from 4,000-yard passer to historic meltdown. The Texans have gained the 8th-most yards offensively, and have allowed the fewest yards in the NFL defensively. But the lack of TDs, the miscellaneous TDs allowed, and the annually abysmal special teams play has set a team with winnable talent back. K Randy Bullock has been terrible, missing 8 of 21 field goals, including all four from over 50 yards. DE J.J. Watt has 5.5 sacks, but the defense has only 3 INTs, and ILB Brian Cushing is out for the season again. WR Andre Johnson is averaging a career-high 101.6 receiving yards per game, and it appears that QB Case Keenum (4 TDs, no INTs) has a chance to be Houston’s Tony Romo, making Schaub a version of 2006 Drew Bledsoe. Unfortunately, head coach Gary Kubiak is out indefinitely, which stalls Keenum’s development.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8; predicted: 2-14, 4th): The 2008 Detroit Lions lost games by an average score of 32-17, losing four games by seven points or less. And they had Calvin Johnson for 16 games! The 2013 Jacksonville Jaguars have lost games by an average score of 33-11, and the closest game they played was a 19-9 loss in Oakland. Jacksonville’s 2013 first-round pick, OT Luke Joeckel, is out for the season; the team has allowed 28 sacks. 2012 first-round pick WR Justin Blackmon started the season on suspension, and will end the season on suspension after gaining 415 yards in four games. 2011 first-round pick QB Blaine Gabbert (1 TD, 7 INTs, 49% completions, 5.6 yards per attempt) has been benched for QB Chad Henne (3 TDs, 5 INTs). RB Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging 3.2 yards per carry. Jacksonville has allowed the most rushing yards and rushing TDs in the league, giving up 4.8 yards per run. They have only three INTs, and they have only 11 sacks, fewest in the AFC. They are allowing a 106.0 passer rating, worst in the NFL. At least K Josh Scobee hasn’t missed a kick yet (10/10 field goals, 6/6 PATs).

AFC WEST

Kansas City Chiefs (9-0; predicted: 7-9, 2nd): Best team in the league? Well, they have the best record. Coming off of a 2-14 season, with a head coach that went 4-12 in Philadelphia and a QB that was Bledsoe’d in San Francisco, it was fair to expect improvement from the Chiefs, maybe even a playoff berth. I didn’t expect them to be the last undefeated team, and neither did you. They are the biggest surprise in the league, not because they improved, but because they have shut teams down. Head coach Andy Reid has provided structure, featuring MVP-candidate RB Jamaal Charles offensively while manipulating QB Alex Smith through games. Charles leads the NFL in total yards from scrimmage with 1,114 – Chiefs WRs Donnie Avery, Dwayne Bowe, and Dexter McCluster have 1,029 yards from scrimmage combined. Smith has an 81.4 passer rating – very similar to 2012 Christian Ponder (81.2). Smith is to Charles what Ponder was to Adrian Peterson last year. Reid’s best hire was defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, formerly of the Jets staff. The Chiefs haven’t allowed more than 17 points all season, while leading the league in sacks with 36, led by OLB Justin Houston (11), OLB Tamba Hali (9), and NT Dontari Poe (4.5). Passers have only a 67.8 passer rating vs. Kansas City. Yes, the six AFC QBs the Chiefs have faced have been backups at one point since training camp, but it’s not like Chad Henne, Jake Locker, Matt Flynn, Matt Schaub, Brandon Weeden, or EJ Manuel would have fared much better. Both the Chiefs and Broncos have only beaten one team with a winning record, the shaky Dallas Cowboys. Obviously, the Chiefs have holes. They allow too many sacks (26), they’re 29th in passing yards, and no team allows more yards per run (5.0). But this team looks built to beat great passers. The 2009 Chiefs won only four games, but one of them came against the Steelers and QB Ben Roethlisberger. Sutton was on the Jets staff when Peyton Manning lost his last playoff game as a member of the Colts in 2010, while that Jets team defeated MVP Tom Brady and the Patriots the following week. The 2011 Chiefs were the only team to beat the Green Bay Packers and MVP Aaron Rodgers in the regular season. The 2012 Chiefs won only two games, but one of those wins came in New Orleans against Drew Brees. Andy Reid only won four games last season, but one came against the Baltimore Ravens and eventual Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco. And this year’s Chiefs held Eli Manning’s Giants to 7 points. That’s every active QB who has won a Super Bowl. I didn’t think they were a playoff team, and they still might not win a playoff game, but don’t sleep on the Chiefs, in case you’re writing off a 9-0 team.

Denver Broncos (7-1; predicted: 14-2, 1st): The Broncos have scored 343 points already this season. For perspective, the 2011 Tebow Broncos scored 309 points. QB Peyton Manning already has 29 TD passes and 2,919 passing yards this season, while WR Wes Welker (50 catches, 555 yards) has already matched his career-high with 9 TD catches. WRs Demaryius Thomas (48 catches, 685 yards, 6 TDs) and Eric Decker (46 catches, 669, 3 TDs) are on pace to go over 1,000 yards receiving, TE Julius Thomas has 8 TD catches, and RB Knowshon Moreno leads the NFL with 8 TD runs. The Broncos are 30th in passing yardage allowed, but they have allowed only 3.4 yards per run while leading the NFL in INTs with 13. OLB Von Miller only has one of the team’s 22 sacks, so the Denver defense has growth potential. KR/PR Trindon Holliday has returned a kickoff and a punt for a TD. Their main question going forward revolves around whether or not the team will get head coach John Fox back.

San Diego Chargers (4-4; predicted: 3-13, 4th): It turns out that QB Philip Rivers just needed a break from Norv Turner. Rivers is bucking a five-year decline in his passing, and is turning in a career year with 2,473 passing yards, 17 TDs, 7 INTs, and a league-leading 72% completion rate. Rivers has also only taken 12 sacks. This, despite the team parting ways with 2012 free agent bust WR Robert Meachem and losing WRs Danario Alexander and Malcom Floyd to season-ending injury. Head coach Mike McCoy and offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt have done a great job with the offense, and RB Danny Woodhead leads all RBs in receptions with 49, rookie WR Keenan Allen leads all rookies with 527 receiving yards, and TE Antonio Gates already has more receiving yards this season (550) than last season (538). Besides the Chiefs, I feel like the Chargers are a big surprise this season. However, the defense has regressed, ranking 28th in yards allowed. San Diego allows 4.9 yards per run, has intercepted only four passes (two by defensive linemen), and have allowed a 100.3 passer rating.

Oakland Raiders (3-5; predicted: 3-13, 3rd): The Raiders have been at their best when they score first, as the team is 3-2 in those games. Oakland has one of the worst passing games in the NFL, as QB Terrelle Pryor has only 5 TD passes and 9 INTs to go with 1,437 yards passing. Pryor does lead all QBs in rushing with 485 yards, including a QB-record 93-yard TD. But the Raiders have allowed 32 sacks this season. The Raiders have 23 sacks this season after getting only 25 last year, and the defense is allowing less than 4.0 yards per run for the first time since 2004. But the pass defense was already struggling before they gave up seven touchdown passes to the Eagles. For the season, they are allowing a 105.0 passer rating. K Sebastian Janikowski has already missed more field goals this season (four) than all of last season (three).

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys (5-4; predicted: 5-11, 4th): I know what their record is. I still don’t trust this team. A year after Team High Blood Pressure played 12 games decided by 7 points or less, the 2013 Cowboys have played five such games this season, with a 2-3 record in those games. QB Tony Romo has attempted the most passes in the league, and he has 20 TD passes and only 6 INTs. He utilizes steady TE Jason Witten (4 TDs, one more than last year) and dynamic WR Dez Bryant (705 yards, 8 TDs). Dallas still doesn’t run the ball enough with RB DeMarco Murray (95 carries, 4.8 yards per carry, three TDs), and that’s when Murray is healthy. ILB Sean Lee already has four INTs, and the Cowboys have 23 sacks (7 from DT Jason Hatcher, 6 by DE George Selvie). But the Cowboys are 31st in passing yards allowed, and teams gain 4.6 yards per run against Dallas.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-5; predicted: 5-11, 3rd): The Eagles have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL on its way to giving up the most total yards in the NFL. Philadelphia has one of the strangest teams in the league. They can’t win at home (0-4, ten game losing streak dating back to last season), yet they are 4-1 on the road. They have the NFL’s leading rusher in RB LeSean McCoy, and WR DeSean Jackson leads the NFC in receiving yards. Philadelphia has played three QBs: Michael Vick has been the best runner (308 rushing yards, third among QBs), Nick Foles has been the best passer (13 TDs, no INTs), and rookie Matt Barkley has been the most unprepared (leads team with 4 INTs).

Washington Redskins (3-5; predicted: 9-7, 1st): No one in this division defends. The Redskins are last in the NFC in points allowed, and have already given up 17 TD passes. The Redskins have also allowed 10 rushing TDs. While RB Alfred Morris has ran well (133 carries, 5.2 yards per carry), QB Robert Griffin III has been a shell of his rookie form (9 TD passes, 9 INTs, 9 fumbles, zero rushing TDs). WR Pierre Garcon already has more receiving yards this season (684 yards) than last. Just about every player Washington would have counted on this season is healthy, and last year’s Redskins turned 3-6 into a divisional title. But Griffin needs to take better care of the ball and show some consistency if a repeat is to happen.

New York Giants (2-6; predicted: 9-7, 2nd): Usually, the Giants wait until midseason to have their crisis. They got it out of the way early this season, losing their first six while leading the NFL in turnovers with 25. QB Eli Manning has been one of the worst QBs in the NFL, throwing 10 TDs, 15 INTs, and taking as many sacks this season as last (19). WR Hakeem Nicks hasn’t scored a TD this season. Manning isn’t getting much help from his RBs either: five backs have at least 20 carries for the Giants, and that does not include injured RB Andre Brown or FB Henry Hynoski. Every back has averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry. The Giants also have an NFL-low 10 sacks despite the presence of DEs Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, and Mathias Kiwanuka. The defense has done a better job against the run, allowing only 3.6 yards per carry. But special teams play has been awful, as the team has lost multiple fumbles on returns as well as allowed three punts to be returned for TDs. Their two wins this season have come against teams led by inept QBs Josh Freeman (Vikings version) and Matt Barkley (after relieving an injured Vick), but they did a solid job of defending those teams’ RBs, Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy.

NFC NORTH

Detroit Lions (5-3; predicted: 5-11, 4th): The Lions ended last season on an 8-game losing streak, despite WR Calvin Johnson’s record-breaking season. Johnson is still dominating the NFL, leading the league in yards per game (117.3) with more TDs this season (7) than all of last (5). The addition of RB Reggie Bush has been great, as he leads the team with 853 yards from scrimmage and averages 4.4 yards on his 119 carries. But QB Matthew Stafford has bounced back this season, improving his passer rating from 79.8 to 94.7 this season, passing for 2,617 yards with 16 TDs and only 6 INTs. The Lions allow the fewest sacks in the league (10) despite the fact that the Lions throw more than almost any team in the league. The defense still allows too many yards (ranked 25th), and the Detroit pass rush hasn’t produced as much as their talent level suggests (only 13 sacks). The Lions allow 4.8 yards per carry. The special teams unit cost them two games this season: K David Akers missed two FGs in Arizona, rookie P Sam Martin shanked a late punt to set up a game-winning FG for the Bengals. OLB DeAndre Levy has stepped up his play, leading the team in tackles and INTs (4). Detroit should be fine as long as the triplets (Stafford, Bush, and Megatron) stay on the field and in the end zone.

Chicago Bears (5-3; predicted: 10-6, 2nd): Head coach Marc Trestman has put his mark on the Bears, optimizing WRs Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, TE Martellus Bennett, and RB Matt Forte. Even with QB Jay Cutler injured, the Bears were able to start QB Josh McCown on the road and put up enough points to win at Lambeau Field for the first time since Brett Favre was starting for the Packers. Only the Broncos have scored more points than Chicago, as Forte has more TDs this season (7) than last (5). Jeffery (38 catches, 621 yards, 16.6 yards per catch, 3 TDs) has already exceeded his production from last season as he has been an excellent complement to Marshall (53 catches, 647 yards, 6 TDs). M. Bennett has already exceeded the production of all of Chicago’s TEs from last season with 36 catches, 392 yards, and 4 TDs. The Bears offensive line has allowed only 12 sacks while the run game averages 4.8 yards per carry. It’s a good thing the offense is humming, because this defense fell off in a big way, ranking 26th in yards and 29th in points allowed. Opponents are scoring 28.2 points per game against Chicago, the most the Bears have allowed since the merger. The Bears still force a lot of turnovers, as their 19 takeaways are the second-most in the NFL. But the sacks have dried up (only 14), they can’t stop the run (29th in yards, 10 rushing TDs allowed), and safeties Chris Conte and Major Wright have been torched repeatedly in coverage (Bears allow 8.5 yards per throw, worst in the NFC).

Green Bay Packers (5-3; predicted: 10-6, 1st): QB Aaron Rodgers is this year’s Ben Roethlisberger. From 2008-2012, Rodgers was sacked 202 times, the most in the NFL in that span. Rodgers only missed one start in that time. Like Roethlisberger last year, Rodgers has been taking fewer sacks after taking a league-leading 51 last year. But his 18th sack of the season will knock him out for an extended period of time. You could say that Rodgers was due to get hurt eventually. We’ll see if the Packers’ backup plan (QB Seneca Wallace, for now) will be adequate. It’s a good thing that the Packers picked this year to completely rejuvenate a long dormant run game. Green Bay is 2nd in the league in rushing, and their 5.0 yards per run is the highest mark in the NFL. The Packers have actually ranked 25th in passing attempts, letting rookie RB Eddie Lacy sledgehammer foes to the tune of 134 carries for 596 yards, 4.4 yards per run, and 4 TDs. WR Jordy Nelson (43 catches, 747 receiving yards, 16.7 yards per catch, 7 TDs) has been the only Packer receiver to stay on the field, as WRs James Jones and Randall Cobb have missed time with injuries and TE Jermichael Finley is out for the season. Green Bay has 24 sacks this season despite the absences of OLBs Clay Matthews and Nick Perry, but the pass defense is struggling mightily, allowing 14 TD passes and only 3 INTs. A year after missing 12 FGs, K Mason Crosby is having his best year, making 19/21 FGs.

Minnesota Vikings (1-7; predicted: 8-8, 3rd): Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, Josh Freeman … It really doesn’t matter who the quarterback is. The Vikings can’t stop anybody. Minnesota is allowing even more points this season than in 2011, when they went 3-13. When they played average defense last season, ranking 16th in yardage allowed, they rode MVP RB Adrian Peterson’s 2,000-yard season into the playoffs. Now, the Vikings look like last year’s Kansas City Chiefs (shout out to Cassel and former KC DE Jared Allen)! Peterson is still running strong, taking 153 carries for 711 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, and 7 TDs. But Vikings QBs have combined to throw six TD passes and 9 INTs, while the annually poor Vikings pass defense has allowed an NFC-high 18 TD passes. Minnesota is wasting an outstanding year from the return units, as rookie WR Cordarrelle Patterson has returned two kickoffs for TDs while CB Marcus Sherels has returned a punt for a TD.

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints (6-2; predicted: 8-8, 2nd): The Saints have the most well-rounded team in the NFL, as they rank in the top-ten in offensive and defensive yardage and points. Head coach Sean Payton’s return and subsequent hire of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has paid dividends immediately. That said, their run defense, like Kansas City’s, gives up way too much yardage (4.9 yards per carry, worst in the NFC). Unlike the Chiefs, it has cost New Orleans games. But pressure busts pipes, and the pressure defense of the Saints has been remarkable, as opponents have thrown only 8 TD passes and 9 INTs while taking 26 sacks. DE Cameron Jordan (6 sacks) and OLB Junior Galette (5 sacks) have led the charge, while free agent CB Keenan Lewis has more INTs this season (3) than in his previous four seasons in Pittsburgh (1). Ryan has somewhat reliable safeties in Malcolm Jenkins and rookie Kenny Vaccaro, something he didn’t have in Dallas. A year after leading the NFL in INTs, QB Drew Brees has protected the football (21 TDs, 7 INTs) while finding his backs and tight ends with regularity. TE Jimmy Graham has 746 receiving yards and 10 TDs already, while RBs Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas have combined for 76 catches, 658 receiving yards, and three TDs. The Saints are getting WR Marques Colston’s worst season (only 342 receiving yards and one TD), they still can’t run the ball at all (3.3 yards per carry, three rushing TDs, only 50 total yards from 2011 first-round RB Mark Ingram), and Brees is getting sacked more than ever (20 sacks allowed).

Carolina Panthers (5-3; predicted: 6-10, 4th): The Panthers are games over .500 for the first time since 2008, and while QB Cam Newton has shown he can string strong games together (13 TDs, 7 INTs), the emergence of the defense into the league’s upper echelon has been the story here. I thought the Panthers would have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, but a unit starting CBs Captain Munnerlyn and Melvin White and FS Mike Mitchell and SS Quintin Mikell has allowed a league-low 7 TD passes while intercepting 12 passes. The Carolina pass rush has been ferocious, as DEs Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy have combined for 12 of the team’s 23 sacks. 2012 first-round ILB Luke Kuechly has three INTs, and 2013 first-round DT Star Lotulelei has helped the Panthers allow only 3.7 yards per carry. OLB Thomas Davis has been able to stay healthy and productive with three sacks. The Panthers are one of three teams that run more than they throw, and with RB Jonathan Stewart joining Newton, RB DeAngelo Williams, and FB Mike Tolbert in the backfield, don’t expect that figure to change. The Panthers have issues in pass protection, as Newton has taken 22 sacks, 14 of them coming in the team’s three losses. Carolina is 4-0 when Newton runs for a TD. It also helps that head coach Ron Rivera stopped being so conservative and turned into Riverboat Ron, putting his talented backfield to good use on a regular basis.

Atlanta Falcons (2-6; predicted: 9-7, 1st): I wasn’t high on this team, suggesting RB Steven Jackson was “approaching the cliff” and that the front seven was suspect. Well, Jackson has failed to be an upgrade over Michael Turner, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and scoring zero TDs on 38 carries while missing time with an injury. RB Jacquizz Rodgers has received the majority of the carries, but he is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry on his 67 attempts. DE Kroy Biermann is out for the season and OLB Sean Weatherspoon has only played in two games, but the run defense was bad last year, as it is this year (4.5 yards per carry allowed). The pass defense fell off in a major way, as the Falcons allow an NFC-worst 100.5 passer rating. Injuries to WRs Julio Jones and Roddy White have robbed QB Matt Ryan of his most dynamic targets, but Atlanta’s terrible defense and non-existent running game was already going to make things hard on this team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8; predicted: 8-8, 3rd): Tampa Bay was 6-4 last year, and I was lauding the 4,000-yard season Josh Freeman was putting together along with the aggressive front seven that head Greg Schiano turned around to lead the NFL in run defense. Well, Tampa Bay has won once in their last 14 contests. It’s one thing to sour on Freeman, as third-round rookie QB Mike Glennon has been better (83.1 passer rating, better than Freeman and higher drafted rookies EJ Manuel and Geno Smith). But the off-field distractions that led to Freeman’s release, the MRSA issues, and the backlash from ex-Buccaneers has undermined Schiano’s credibility. Oh yeah, and the football team is winless and off to their worst start since the Leeman Bennett Buccaneers started 0-9 in 1985. Tampa Bay has the worst offense outside of Jacksonville, and with WR Mike Williams on injured reserve and RB Doug Martin out indefinitely, it may not get better. The defense has gotten worse, allowing 27 points or more in every game since the bye. And the team is 0-4 in games decided by 7 points or less, blowing leads in each of those games. Hopefully the Buccaneers don’t plan on drafting Bo Jackson next year.

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks (8-1; predicted: 12-4, 1st): The Seahawks are another one of those teams that run more than they pass, and it’s a good thing they have QB Russell Wilson and not a limited statue under center. Seattle has allowed 27 sacks, but Wilson has 15 TD passes, only 6 INTs, and has led three fourth quarter comebacks. RB Marshawn Lynch has 923 yards and 7 TDs from scrimmage; Seahawks WRs Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin have combined for 947 yards from scrimmage and 5 TDs. WR Sidney Rice is out for the season, but the team expects to get WR Percy Harvin back at some point. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest points in the NFC, and have allowed an NFC-low 68.6 passer rating (9 TDs, 13 INTs). Seattle has racked up 29 sacks, as eight different defenders have gotten to the passer multiple times. Seattle’s profile at this point in the season is very similar to Kansas City’s, but Wilson has had to make a lot of plays for his team. Excluding the loss in Indianapolis, he has delivered up to this point.

San Francisco 49ers (6-2; predicted: 12-4, 2nd): Folks asked what was wrong with the 49ers after they lost back to back games at Seattle and against the Colts. OLB Aldon Smith had to leave the team to get his life together, and the 49ers looked rough offensively. The 49ers’ five-game blowout streak has calmed most of that talk. The 49ers are the other team that has ran more than they have thrown, and they do it at a more extreme level than any other team, ranking first in rushing attempts and last in pass attempts. RB Frank Gore continues to churn out production, racking up 618 rushing yards on 146 attempts, 4.2 yards per carry, and 7 TDs. QB Colin Kaepernick (87.6 passe rating, 294 rushing yards) doesn’t throw much, and when he does, he only throws to WR Anquan Boldin (38 catches, 551 yards, 14.5 yards per catch, 2 TDs) and TE Vernon Davis (29 catches, 518 yards, 17.9 yards per catch, 7 TDs). All other receivers have 47 catches and zero TDs. Perhaps that will change when WRs Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham return to action, but don’t bet on it; the 49ers have the most rushing yards and rushing TDs in the NFL. San Francisco is still a top-ten defense, and the pass defense has actually improved (75.3 passer rating allowed) despite the absence of Smith. Rookie FS Eric Reid (3 INTs) has been a great replacement for Dashon Goldson.

Arizona Cardinals (4-4; predicted: 5-11, 4th): Last year, the Cardinals started 4-0 before losing 11 of their last 12 games. This year, the Cardinals are 4-4 again, but they are under the radar. Arizona has been very good up front, allowing only three rushing TDs and 3.5 yards per carry while intercepting 12 passes and racking up 23 sacks. The defense would be even better if they actually defended TEs; in their four losses, they have allowed 8 TDs to TEs. Arizona’s offense has been discouraging, as they rank 29th in total yards. QB Carson Palmer is off to a poor start (72.4 passer rating), as he already has as many INTs this season (14) as last season, while taking almost as many sacks (23, after only 26 sacks last year in Oakland). RB Rashard Mendenhall (92 carries, 281 yards, 3.1 yards per carry, 3 TDs) has twice as many carries as rookie RB Andre Ellington, yet Ellington has many more yards (43 carries, 333 yards, 7.7 yards per carry, 2 TDs). WR Larry Fitzgerald has more receiving TDs (5) than all of last season, but he isn’t on pace for a 1,000-yard season.

Saint Louis Rams (3-6; predicted: 7-9, 3rd): The Rams have at least found a player in rookie RB Zac Stacy (103 carries, 475 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, 2 TDs), which is good because 2012 draft picks Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson still don’t have a single career TD. QB Sam Bradford is out for the year, and his injuries are starting to pile up Carson Palmer-style: injured shoulder in college, high ankle sprain in 2011, torn ACL in 2013. Bradford was advancing in his decision-making (14 TDs, 4 INTs), but now QB Kellen Clemens (8 TDs, 15 INTs in 8 NFL seasons) is running the Mediocre Show on Turf. First-round rookie WR Tavon Austin is averaging 6.7 yards per catch; that’s bad for a receiving back, let alone the first receiver drafted. The Rams have allowed 22 sacks as well. The Rams have one of the best pass rushing defensive lines in the NFL, led by DEs Robert Quinn (10 sacks) and Chris Long (5.5), but the Rams still can’t stop the run (28th in rushing yards allowed, 11 rushing TDs allowed) and the secondary gets embarrassed on a weekly basis (99.7 passer rating allowed, fifth-worst in the NFL).

-1SKILLZ