Hope you all had a Happy Thanksgiving. We have entered “Holiday Season” – that time of the year from Turkey Day until the first of the New Year where we fight the battle between “the meaning of family” and “overprocessed American commercialism”.
But I digress. Let’s stick to the NFL, as the third quarter of the NFL season is coming to a close.
Week 13 features a hefty NINE divisional matchups, as all eight divisions get in the action. Obviously, we’ll see all 16 Week 17 games feature divisional games. But nine games is a hefty load, especially considering the craziness of the playoff picture in both conferences.
2013 NFL Week 13 picks (6-7-1 in Week 12, +31 for 2013): GB, DAL, PIT, CAR, CLE, IND, DEN, MIN, MIA, ARI, ATL, SF, HOU, CIN, NYG, SEA
— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) November 28, 2013
As you can see, I went 1-2 on Thanksgiving:
Lions 40, Packers 10: The Lions hammered another nail in Green Bay QB Matt Flynn’s NFL viability, but Green Bay’s defense is going to get defensive coordinator Dom Capers fired. The only other game in which the Packers gave up more than the 561 they allowed on Thanksgiving was actually the January 1, 2012 game vs. the Lions. In that game, Flynn threw six TDs and the Packers won despite giving up 520 yards and five TDs to Lions QB Matthew Stafford. Flynn didn’t throw a TD on Thanksgiving, while Stafford (330 passing yards, 3 TDs) and the Detroit rushing game (241 yards on 41 carries, two TDs) absolutely trucked the Green Bay defense. The Lions have control in the NFC North now with a 4-1 record in the division, which overshadows their 3-4 record outside of the NFC North. As for the Packers? The rest of their season is about finding out just how much help this roster needs, especially defensively. The lack of depth and impact talent belies GM Ted Thompson’s reputation.
Cowboys 31, Raiders 24: For the first time since 1999, the Lions and the Cowboys both won on Thanksgiving! Perhaps not surprisingly, 1999 was the last time the Cowboys and the Lions made the playoffs in the same season. I criticized the Lions and Cowboys for coming into this season without fullbacks, seemingly signing off on one-dimensional passing attacks. Well, both teams ran better than they had in years on Thanksgiving, with the Cowboys hammering Oakland for 144 rushing yards and three DeMarco Murray rushing TDs. The last time a Cowboys runner had three ground TDs in a game was in 2004 (Julius Jones). The Cowboys are 7-5, with a 4-0 record in the NFC East and a 3-5 record outside the division. Oakland is 4-8 and will most likely be relegated to spoiler.
Ravens 22, Steelers 20: Both of these AFC North teams came in with 5-6 records, two of six AFC teams tied for the last spot in the AFC playoff picture entering Week 13. For now, Baltimore has pole position for the sixth seed after their special special teams showed up. Baltimore K Justin Tucker made five field goals, continuing another awesome season in which he has missed only two field goals (both against the Browns in Week 2). For an offense that seems allergic to the end zone, Tucker has been extremely valuable. Compare that to the Pittsburgh special teams unit, who have changed punters twice since the preseason and watched as the Pittsburgh field goal unit botched an attempt in the second quarter. And perhaps Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin wouldn’t be in trouble today if his return unit didn’t get smoked by Jacoby Jones. Baltimore is in a good tiebreaker spot with wins over the Steelers, Jets, and Dolphins, and they have been 6-6 before under head coach John Harbaugh, back in the 2009 season. That team won three of their last four regular season games to secure a playoff berth.
THE GAMEPLAN FOR WEEK 13
Panthers over Buccaneers: This week’s NFC South matchup is a rematch of the last time Tampa Bay was blown out (Week 8, 31-13 Panthers on Thursday Night Football). Since that game, the Buccaneers lost to the Seahawks to overtime, then went on a three-game winning streak. Tampa Bay rookie QB Mike Glennon is ninth in the NFL in passer rating, and balance has helped, as he hasn’t thrown more than 23 passes in a game since launching 51 against Carolina in October. Carolina’s top-ranked defense is going to make it hard for that trend to continue, as will the presence of dual-treat passer Cam Newton. Newton had two TD passes and one rushing in the last meeting.
Browns over Jaguars: Jacksonville Jaguars games used to have novelty due to their winless record and wide margins of defeats. Now that they have won a couple of games, there’s nothing much to see with them. After all, they’re still dead last in the NFL offensively. As for the Browns? Folks may complain about their quarterback situation (Brandon Weeden is back under center again), but their sorry run game is stuck on one ground TD in 235 rushes. Cleveland’s front seven is a total mismatch for the Jacksonville offense, so any surprises would have to start from there.
Colts over Titans: The Titans are one of those 5-6 teams in the AFC, but a road win in Indianapolis would pull them one game out of the lead in the AFC South. Tennessee actually has a +5 point margin on the season despite their losing record, while the Colts have a +3 point margin. The difference has been close games, as the Colts have a 5-1 record in games decided by 7 points or less, while Tennessee is 4-4, including a 30-27 loss to the Colts a couple of weeks ago. Tennessee’s special teams have been among the worst in the entire league all season, so that will be worth watching in a close matchup. QB Andrew Luck also has yet to lose consecutive starts in his career, although this isn’t a great matchup for him.
Broncos over Chiefs: With both teams losing last week, the AFC West lead is up for grabs. The Broncos may have lost the game in New England, but the Chiefs lost the vertebrae of their defense in OLBs Tamba Hali and Justin Houston against the Chargers. Those two have combined for 20 of the team’s 37 sacks – not that they were effective against the Broncos two weeks ago. Arrowhead Stadium provides a new challenge for the Denver offense, but then again, the San Diego offense pretty much dumptrucked on Kansas City last week with lesser weaponry. The Chiefs are going to need a repeat performance from their Week 12 offense – they already know that scoring 17 points again won’t cut it against the Broncos.
Vikings over Bears: The NFC North gets a double dip this week, and with the Lions winning, Chicago needs this game to keep pace. Chicago’s defensive issues are a major concern though, as they allowed the Rams to score 42 points (most they have scored in ten years). If the Rams could rush for 258 yards against this Chicago defense, then you know Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is licking his chops – or, you know, just looking forward to getting a healthy amount of touches against this defense. Seriously, Chicago’s turnstile used to be the offensive line – now it’s the defensive line. Minnesota is awful defensively as well, but the friendly confines of the Metrodome should put this game into a shootout territory favorable to the Vikings.
Dolphins over Jets: Both of these 5-6 teams had the inside track on the final AFC Wild Card spot going into Week 12. The Dolphins failed to hold onto a fourth quarter lead as they lost their first game ever to the Panthers, while Jets rookie QB Geno Smith went further into the tank as Baltimore remained undefeated at home against New York. Seriously, Smith’s regression has people recalling Nolan Narwocki’s pre-draft reservations (0 TD passes, 7 INTs in last four games). Smith is the worst starting QB in the NFL right now. The Dolphins might be a mess off the field, but their secondary has a gaudy 12:14 TD-INT ratio allowed as well. Miami needs to figure out how to move the ball; this would be a good week for QB Ryan Tannehill and WR Mike Wallace to connect on that deep ball multiple times.
Cardinals over Eagles: Yes … this is the Todd Bowles Bowl! No need to even sugarcoat this one – this is a bad matchup for the Philadelphia offense. Bowles was terrible in his interim stint in Philadelphia last year, as the Eagles gave up 27 TD passes against only one INT during Bowles’ ten-game tenure. Bowles has been much more successful as Arizona’s defensive coordinator, overseeing a unit that has a 19:15 TD-INT ratio allowed while ranking in the top-five in run defense. Arizona always gives up touchdowns to the TE, but other than that, this will be a tough game for Philadelphia QB Nick Foles, RB LeSean McCoy, and WR DeSean Jackson.
Falcons over Bills: The Atlanta Falcons went from one loss through November of last year to being the worst team in the NFC. As punishment, they will play in Toronto. Atlanta’s biggest problem isn’t injuries, it is their league-worst secondary (106.7 opposing passer rating). While the Falcons have allowed 23 TD passes, the Buffalo Bills aren’t that far behind, allowing 22 TD passes on the year. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has to take care of the ball, as the Bills have victimized quarterbacks at random points in the season (see: Joe Flacco, Geno Smith).
49ers over Rams: With the Cardinals keeping pace with the 49ers (and with both NFC West teams losing to Carolina and New Orleans in the NFC South), this NFC West matchup is huge for the 49ers. San Francisco doesn’t really waste time with substandard quarterbacks, as their four losses this season have come against teams led by Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and Drew Brees. Congratulations to the Rams for finally scoring 40+ in a game for the first time since 2006, but now QB Kellen Clemens and company are facing one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL on the road. When these two teams faced each other in Saint Louis, the Rams were held to 188 total yards, including only 18 on the ground. It will be interesting to see what kind of impact 49ers WR Michael Crabtree will have in his season debut.
Texans over Patriots: How can the Texans, the worst team in the AFC, possibly win this game?! Even when Houston was the best team in the AFC through November of last season, the Patriots dropped 83 points on them in two games. I hate the way Houston has let their season spiral completely out of control, but they also are still alive in the AFC Wild Card race (only four games back!), so this game is more than a chance to play spolier. Houston DE J.J. Watt will still challenge the Patriots up front, while New England needs to find out if any of their big backs can hold onto the football. The bloom is starting to come off the Case Keenum rose, but he and the Houston backs should have more than enough opportunities to move the ball on a vulnerable New England front seven.
Bengals over Chargers: These two teams met at the same time of the season in San Diego last year, a 20-13 Bengals win. This is a big game for both teams, as a Cincinnati loss puts the AFC North back into play going into the last week of the season, while San Diego is one of the flawed 5-6 teams. San Diego’s flaw is their secondary, ranked 31st in opposing passer rating. The Chargers have a terrible quartet of cornerbacks, and none of them should stand a chance against Cincinnati WR A.J. Green coming off a bye week. The Bengals are extra shaky on the road, but they were great against San Diego QB Philip Rivers last season, holding him without a TD pass despite 48 attempts.
Giants over Redskins: A typical NFC East matchup. Despite the fact that this game is the only one of the nine divisional matchups that feature two teams completely out of the current playoff picture, it happens to be a Sunday Night Football matchup. Washington is at home, and they won a Week 13 primetime game last year against the Giants as part of their miraculous playoff push. But this is 2013, Washington is on a short week, and they have been embarrassing at night (0-4 in night games this season). Giants QB Eli Manning has been much worse than Redskins QB Robert Griffin III this season, but he does get to face one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
Seahawks over Saints: The Seahawks aren’t helping themselves with their substance-abusing cornerbacks dominating the bye week headlines coming out of Seattle, days before they put their NFC lead on the line. Fortunately for them, I don’t focus on stories – just matchups. And the matchup says that New Orleans QB Drew Brees isn’t the lethal quarterback he is in New Orleans (122.2 passer rating at home this season) when he is on the road (89.2 passer rating this season). Now, that doesn’t mean Brees can’t light up Seattle – he did have 404 yards in a 41-36 playoff loss in Seattle three years ago. It just means that Brees isn’t the hyper-efficient machine that makes his legend, and Beast Mode could easily go for an encore against a New Orleans defense allowing 4.8 yards a rush.
-1SKILLZ