The 2013-2014 NBA Lightweight Report

Welcome back for another season of the NBA Lightweight Report, courtesy of The NetworksUnited!  Even more than past seasons, I have been all over the NBA, starting with the Offseason Maintenance Report, the Summer Moves databases for the Western and Eastern Conferences, and finally debuting a new grading system, similar to what you see in the NFL Hypothesis Reports. I also had a dead on preview for last spring’s NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs. So with all of that in the rearview, it’s time to get started on what next year will look like in the Association.

The 2013-2014 NBA Lightweight Report, co-sponsored by Riggin’ for Wiggins and Waiting for Godot!

Now, as you should know by now, the NU does not go full-body into the NBA season like the NFL season.  As explained last every year:

NBA previewing doesn’t require as much science.  The NFL schedule is a significant variable in a team’s success.  Everyone plays everyone in the NBA, so the best teams win.  Alas, there’s the caveat with the “team” parts of things.  In the NFL, teams (and their coaching staffs) are pretty much set for the season.  In the NBA, things change constantly:  Stars get traded, injuries and transactions can completely remake a team, and coaches and even general managers can lose their job with as little as a bad 16-game streak.  Nobody is safe in the NBA!

Now, what I am sharing for the first time are my basketball grades. While most like to break down basketball teams by position, I feel like a better way is to break down personnel by what they can do to affect games. My categories are simple. For offense, I use “perimeter offense”, “interior offense”, and “control”:

• Perimeter offense is heavily influenced by perimeter personnel’s ability to drive, draw fouls, and score, as well as the depth and effectiveness of all distance shooters.
• Interior offense is reserved for post personnel scoring and offensive rebounding.
• Control refers to the ability of a team’s collective passing and ability to limit turnovers, not limited to just point guard play.

For defense, I use “pressure”, “interior defense”, and “perimeter defense”.

• Pressure is the team’s ability to force steals and other turnovers.
• Interior defense refers to the ability of a team’s ability to not only block shots and rebound, but to contain effective bigs before the shot while protecting the rim without fouling.
• Perimeter defense refers to the ability of a team to defend shooters and penetrators consistently, not simply in the act of gambling.

I’m debuting a new term this season: “basketball special teams”, highly influenced by football special teams. I feel it is a good way to evaluate free throw shooting, which is NOT the ability to draw fouls but simply the ability to make free throws (kicking game), fast break (return units), transition defense (coverage), pace (tempo), and depth (personnel). Just like special teams is a factor in football, but not to the level of the offense and defense, special teams in basketball is a factor even though it is not as critical as half-court effectiveness on both ends. I don’t grade coaching and intangibles, but they figure into any head-to-head evaluation.

Ray Guy will get in the Hall of Fame … and then he will run basketball clinics on transition defense!

The NBA looks like it is broken up into thirds this season: playoff teams with realistic contender expectations, confused teams that would like to sell playoff tickets, and lottery teams getting their tank on extra hard. Of the 25 All-Stars from last season, three have found their way onto new teams (Kevin Garnett to the Brooklyn Nets, Jrue Holiday to the New Orleans Pelicans, and Dwight Howard to the Houston Rockets). That’s right – the Nets received another All-Star, the 76ers gave up another All-Star, and the Hollywood Dwightmare changed teams again.

Now, Howard goes from being the Dwightmare to working with The Dream, I presume.

In addition to the roster movements, 14 teams have changed head coaches within the past year. Nine are in their first season as NBA head coaches: Brad Stevens of the Boston Celtics, Jason Kidd of the Brooklyn Nets, Brett Brown of the Philadelphia 76ers, Mike Budenholzer of the Atlanta Hawks, Steve Clifford of the Charlotte Bobcats, Brian Shaw of the Denver Nuggets, Jeff Hornacek of the Phoenix Suns, Mike Malone of the Sacramento Kings, and Dave Joerger of the Memphis Grizzlies. The Los Angeles Lakers kept Mike D’Antoni after he took over in November, the Los Angeles Clippers “acquired” Doc Rivers, the Milwaukee Bucks hired Larry Drew, the Cleveland Cavaliers brought back Mike Brown, and the Detroit Pistons hired Maurice Cheeks.

Welcome New Orleans Pelicans! And, a shoutout to Vancouver and Seattle.

We’re going to set the bar here, and just about every team has a healthy amount of optimism going into the season.  But wins and losses will change those attitudes. And because this is the Lightweight Report, just know that I reserve the right to disregard these playoff picks come April! A certain team burned me last year, and I even implied that I saw it coming! I’ll be tweeting on every team once this is released @1maddskillz – check the standings link for my lightweight report.  On to it now:

*Check out the EASTERN CONFERENCE rotation and movement review to start the season*

Atlantic: Brooklyn (2nd Eastern), New York (7th Eastern), Toronto (9th Eastern), Boston (13th Eastern), Philadelphia (15th Eastern).

Central: Chicago (1st Eastern), Indiana (5th Eastern), Detroit (8th Eastern), Cleveland (10th Eastern), Milwaukee (11th Eastern).

Southeast: Miami (3rd Eastern), Atlanta (4th Eastern), Washington (6th Eastern), Charlotte (12th Eastern), Orlando (14th Eastern).

 *Check out the WESTERN CONFERENCE rotation and movement review to start the season*

Northwest: Oklahoma City (3rd Western), Portland (7th Western), Minnesota (8th Western), Denver (9th Western), Utah (14th Western).

Pacific: Los Angeles Clippers (2nd Western), Golden State (5th Western), Los Angeles Lakers (12th Western), Phoenix (13th Western), Sacramento (15th Western).

Southwest: San Antonio (1st Western), Memphis (4th Western), Houston (6th Western), New Orleans (10th Western), Dallas (11th Western).

 East Quarters: Bulls over Pistons … Nets over Knicks … Heat over Wizards … Pacers over Hawks.

East Semis: Bulls over Pacers … Heat over Nets.

East Finals: Heat over Bulls.

West Quarters: Spurs over Timberwolves … Clippers over Trail Blazers … Thunder over Rockets … Warriors over Grizzlies.

West Semis:  Spurs over Warriors … Clippers over Thunder.

West Finals: Spurs over Clippers.

 NBA Finals: Spurs over Heat in 7.

No team has three-peated since the 2002 Lakers. No Eastern Conference team has three-peated since the 1998 Bulls. No team has made it to four straight NBA Finals since the 1987 Boston Celtics. Can the Heat get it done again?

-1SKILLZ