2013 NFL Week 9 Gameplan

The big project from the NetworksUnited this week has been the release of the 2013-2014 NBA Lightweight Report, the World Series ends in Fenway Park, and Halloween ends the month of October. Meanwhile, the NFL has six more teams off for Week 9, with three key divisional games.

I do want to cover what was a bounce back week for the Gameplan, as my teams went 8-5. I’ll start with the five winners I missed on: Patriots, Raiders, Cardinals, Packers, and Seahawks:

• Patriots 27, Dolphins 17: New England’s defense is carrying this team, allowing only nine TD passes with ten INTs. I said last week that both teams were getting their quarterbacks sacked at an alarming rate – Patriots QB Tom Brady took three sacks, and Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill took six. In the third quarter with the Dolphins leading 17-3, one of those Tannehill sacks set up a missed field goal, and on the next possession with the Dolphins up 17-10, Tannehill lost a fumble deep in his own territory. The Patriots ran the football (152 yards, two second half TDs on 37 attempts), while the Dolphins went away from the run (156 rushing yards on 31 carries, but only nine rushes in the second half).
• Raiders 21, Steelers 18: I said that Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor would not have a great game. He responded by ripping off a 93-yard TD run on the game’s first snap, an NFL record for quarterbacks. Once Oakland built a 21-3 lead, it didn’t matter that Tebow Pryor was abysmal post-record run: 10/19 for 88 yards, no TDs, two INTs, and 13 yards on 8 rushes. The Raiders defense dominated the Steelers up front, sacking Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger five times and holding the Steelers run game (who I identified as a catalyst for a Pittsburgh road win) to 35 yards and a TD on 19 attempts. Pittsburgh’s special teams (Zoltan Mesko punt blocked, two missed field goals under 40 yards) was deplorable.
• Cardinals 27, Falcons 13: I mentioned how Falcons QB Matt Ryan threw five INTs last season against the Cardinals, but somehow managed to not cost his team a victory. Ryan threw four INTs  in 60 attempts this time around, all in the second half, and the Cardinals put up the TDs to make the Falcons pay. Cardinals QB Carson Palmer ended his multi-turnover game streak while throwing two TDs, while Cardinals rookie RB Andre Ellington put up 154 rushing yards, including an 80-yard sideline blazer to the house. While Palmer had a running game, Ryan led his team in rushing yards with one carry for 13 yards. Falcons RB Steven Jackson (six yards on 11 carries) looks totaled.
• Packers 44, Vikings 31: We’re just about at midseason, so some of these picks truly test the limits of “Any Given Sunday”. This game and the next were two of those scenarios. First the good for the Vikings: rookie WR/KR Cordarrelle Patterson tied an NFL record for longest kickoff return for a TD (109 yards). The bad: Despite another good showing on the scoreboard, the Vikings offense with QB Christian Ponder was rough (only 243 total yards of offense, two of the four Minnesota TDs were of the garbage time variety). The ugly: Minnesota’s defense, giving up 464 yards, including 123 and two TDs to WR Jordy Nelson (Greg Jennings had nine yards on one catch).
• Seahawks 14, Rams 9: I was about to be especially proud of the Rams – they sacked Seahawks QB Russell Wilson seven times and came one play away from pulling an upset that I had prescribed for them in the Gameplan! Unfortunately, Rams K Greg Zuerlein missed a 50-yard field goal in the fourth quarter – that hurts, especially when Zuerlein made kicks of 48, 58, and 60 to beat the Seahawks last season. Instead of setting up a game-winning field goal, Saint Louis had third-and-goal on the one (rush, no gain), and fourth-and-goal for the last play of the game. Rams QB Kellen Clemens (15/31, 158 yards, no TDs, two INTs, sacked three times) threw incomplete out of an empty back set on the one-yard line to end the game. The Rams have no rushing TDs this season in 192 carries.

For the other eight games, I’ll use one line from last week’s Gameplan that stood out:

• Panthers 31, Buccaneers 13: The only game Tampa Bay head coach Greg Schiano has won this year is the one over Josh Freeman. While Panthers QB Cam Newton accounted for three TDs and got his team over .500 for the first time in his NFL career, Schiano’s Buccaneers have given up 31 points in three straight games.
• Lions 31, Cowboys 30: The last time the two teams played, Cowboys QB Tony Romo threw three brutal INTs to blow a 24-point lead, while WR Calvin Johnson caught two fourth quarter TDs for a 34-30 Lions win in 2011. Yet another brilliant fourth quarter finish at the Cowboys’ expense, with Megatron reaching 329 receiving yards and QB Matthew Stafford saving a two-INT day with 488 passing yards and a game-winning drive and QB sneak.
• Chiefs 23, Browns 17: Campbell won his last start at Arrowhead Stadium in 2010, but without a running game (only one rushing TD all season), Cleveland is just asking for trouble against the hyper-aggressive Kansas City pass rush (35 sacks). Browns QB Jason Campbell played well (293 yards on 36 attempts, two TDs, no turnovers, only one sack taken), but the Chiefs held Cleveland to only 57 yards rushing on 15 carries, and Cleveland’s offense picked up only 13 first downs.
• Saints 35, Bills 17: It’s tough to beat the Saints at home though, especially after the bye week, where the Saints have won their last four post-bye games. It took eight weeks, but the Bills finally got blown out for the first time this season, allowing 332 yards passing and five TD passes to Saints QB Drew Brees.
• Giants 15, Eagles 7: The Giants did a decent job against Eagles RB LeSean McCoy a few weeks ago (20 carries, 46 yards, one TD), and if Philadelphia QB Michael Vick pulls up lame against the Giants this time, rookie QB Matt Barkley (three possessions, three INTs) will have to save the day. McCoy was shut down by the Giants (48 yards on 15 carries), Vick (6/9, 30 yards, one INT) reaggravated his hamstring injury, and Barkley did not save the day despite entering in the first half down 12-0 (seven possessions, zero scoring drives, two turnovers).
• Bengals 49, Jets 9: Jets head coach Rex Ryan is 3-0 against the Cincinnati Bengals, as Cincinnati has scored a combined 24 points in those three games. Of course, none of those games involved Bengals WR A.J. Green or QB Andy Dalton. While Jets rookie QB Geno Smith tossed two second half pick-sixes, Dalton threw for 325 yards and five TDs – four of them to WR Marvin Jones – while Green had 115 yards on his three catches.
• Broncos 45, Redskins 21: The Redskins also can’t stop anybody defensively – Denver QB Peyton Manning is going to have a field day throwing the ball, and then RB Knowshon Moreno should get a chance to dent the Redskins’ bottom-five run defense. Manning (three INTs, one returned for a TD by Redskins CB DeAngelo Hall) and Moreno (44 yards on 14 carries) weren’t perfect by any stretch, but Moreno did lead the Broncos in receiving yards (89 yards, 35 on a TD reception), Manning put up 354 yards and four TDs on 44 attempts, and the Broncos scored 38 points in the last 26 minutes of the game.

The six teams on Week 8 bye weeks:

• Indianapolis (5-2) has as many wins as the rest of the AFC South combined after Jacksonville’s loss.
• Tennessee (3-4) needs to get their WRs going – only Nate Washington averages more than 11 yards a catch on at least ten catches.
• Houston (2-5) is turning to QB Case Keenum.
• Baltimore (3-4) had a good bye week with Cleveland and Pittsburgh losing, but the offensive line needs to step up (20 sacks allowed, only 2.8 yards per run).
• San Diego (4-3) saw every other AFC West team win, but they are one of six AFC teams with a winning record – so much for the AFC West being the NFL’s worst division!
• Chicago (4-3) is now third in the NFC North, and will now rely on backup QB Josh McCown to hold up the league’s 2nd ranked scoring offense.

THE GAMEPLAN FOR WEEK 9

2013 NFL Week 9 picks (8-5 in Week 8, +24 for 2013): CIN, BUF, CAR, MIN, NO, STL, WAS, PHI, SEA, BAL, NE, HOU, CHI

— Law Murray (@1maddskillz) October 30, 2013

First, the six teams that are off this week:

• Denver Broncos QB Peyton Manning has thrown 29 TD passes already – no other passer has 20 yet.
• Jacksonville Jaguars are losing by an average score of 33-11 after eight weeks – the 2008 Lions lost by an average score of 32-17.
• New York Giants QB Eli Manning hasn’t thrown an INT during New York’s two-game winning streak, but he’s only thrown one TD pass in his last 78 attempts.
• The Detroit Lions have already won more games this season (5) than all of last season (4), and while QB Matthew Stafford leads the league in passes attempted (338), he’s only been sacked ten times.
• The Arizona Cardinals need to keep QB Carson Palmer upright: Palmer took only 26 sacks and threw 14 INTs in Oakland last season, but he is already up to 23 sacks and 14 INTs through eight games.
• San Francisco 49ers rookie FS Eric Reid leads all rookie DBs with three INTs, and the 49ers have allowed a 75.3 passer rating, a slight upgrade on last season’s 78.0 mark.

Bengals over Dolphins: The Kevin Coyle Bowl! Miami’s defensive coordinator was on the Cincinnati staff as a defensive backs coach for 12 years prior to joining the Dolphins last year. The Dolphins have allowed a total of 278 passing yards over the last two weeks, but they have dropped both games due to the team’s inability to protect QB Ryan Tannehill. The Bengals don’t play their best on the road, but QB Andy Dalton is riding a serious hot streak (300+ yards passing, 3+ TD passes in three straight games, all wins). The Dolphins will be starting Bryant McKinnie and Tyson Clabo at offensive tackle – the Cincinnati defensive line should be in the backfield most of the night.

Bills over Chiefs: The Bills’ old QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick, couldn’t beat the Chiefs earlier this year. The Chiefs haven’t won in Buffalo since 1986, dropping the last six, including a 35-17 decision last year. Bills RB C.J. Spiller had 170 total yards and two TDs against the Chiefs last year, but he and fellow RB Fred Jackson are banged up, along with WR Stevie Johnson and backup QB Thad Lewis. Against the top-ranked Kansas City defense, Buffalo will need at least one of these guys to step in and play well, and it’ll probably be one of the backs. The Bills have one of the most unblockable defensive lines in the league, and they should be able to hold up in run defense while throttling Chiefs QB Alex Smith.

Panthers over Falcons: No team played the Atlanta Falcons as well as the Carolina Panthers last season. It took heroics from Falcons WR Roddy White and QB Matt Ryan (and some conservative decision-making by newly liberated Panthers head coach Ron Rivera) for the Falcons to escape the game in Atlanta. Panthers QB Cam Newton torched Atlanta with his arm and legs in the second matchup, exposing Atlanta’s linebackers. Well, the Falcons are even worse defensively, while Newton has been playing great during the team’s three-game winning streak (completing better than 71% of passes, six TDs, no INTs). Atlanta’s offensive line can’t block anybody, and now they have to deal with Carolina rookie DTs Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short inside and veteran DEs Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy on the edge.

Vikings over Cowboys: These two teams last played in 2010, with Minnesota winning 24-21 after the Vikings blew out the Cowboys in the 2009 playoffs. Both teams fired their coaches in 2010, and while Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier coached in the 2012 postseason, he is back on the hot seat right now. Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett takes heat every other week for how the end of games go for the Cowboys, and now Dallas and WR Dez Bryant get another terrible secondary to attack. Vikings QB Josh Freeman might be the starter again or it could be QB Christian Ponder; whoever it is, Minnesota needs to get RB Adrian Peterson the ball as much as possible against a thin Cowboys defensive line. It would also help if Minnesota’s defensive line showed up at all in Dallas (DEs Brian Robison and Everson Griffen and DTs Kevin Williams and rookie Sharif Floyd have combined for only 3.5 sacks).

Saints over Jets: The Ryan Bowl! When Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan was in charge of Dallas’ unit in 2011, Jets head coach Rex Ryan’s team narrowly won 27-24. Rex also beat Rob in 2010, when the Jets defeated the Cleveland Browns 26-20 in overtime. But Rex’s Jets lost 24-10 in New Orleans back in 2009 – Mark Sanchez’ first multi-INT game and Rex’ first loss as a head coach. I’m not expecting the Saints to score 30 (they’ve never scored 30 against the Jets), but there should be enough plays in the red zone for them to outscore a Jets team that doesn’t know what they’ll get out of their rookie QB Geno Smith.

Rams over Titans: The Jeff Fisher Bowl! When Fisher was coaching Titans RB Chris Johnson in 2009, Johnson put up 186 total yards and three TDs in a 47-7 Titans win in Tennessee. Despite an awful performance by Rams QB Kellen Clemens, Saint Louis had a chance to beat the top team in the NFC on its home field Monday night, and with Johnson struggling this season (115 carries, no TDs), the Rams will have a chance to turn their pass rush loose against Titans QB Jake Locker. Locker has yet to win a start inside a dome. Rams rookie RB Zac Stacy hasn’t visited the end zone yet this season, but he should get an opportunity against a Tennessee defense that has allowed eight TDs on the ground and 4.2 yards per run.

Redskins over Chargers: The Redskins haven’t beaten the Chargers since 1998, losing three straight after winning the first six meetings. Chargers QB Philip Rivers has a great matchup against the Washington secondary, but the Redskins like to send a lot of pressure. San Diego’s offensive line has held up well this season, but Washington’s OLBs, Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, provide a challenge. The San Diego secondary will also be challenged by Washington QB Robert Griffin III, who has been uneven this season. San Diego’s defense has not performed well on the road against mobile passers such as Michael Vick, Jake Locker, and Terrelle Pryor this season (those passers combined for five TDs while throwing zero INTs).

Eagles over Raiders: The Eagles scored ten points over the last two weeks, the fewest the Eagles have scored in back-to-back games since 1999, Andy Reid’s first season as head coach. A lot of that had to do with injuries to QBs Nick Foles (concussion) and Michael Vick (hamstring) putting rookie QB Matt Barkley on the field, and Barkley’s career is off to a horrible start (ten possessions, five turnovers, zero points). Foles gets the ball this week, and he and former Cal WR DeSean Jackson get an opportunity to shred what is still a bottom-ten Raiders secondary allowing 68% of passes to be completed. The Eagles secondary isn’t much better (31st in pass yardage allowed), but they get a break in Oakland, ranked 32nd in passing yards. The Eagles have never beaten the Raiders in Oakland, with the last loss being in 2009 to a team led by former No.1 overall selection JaMarcus Russell.

Seahawks over Buccaneers: The last time these two teams played, Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman had as many incompletions as TDs (5) on the way to a 38-15 thrashing of Pete Carroll’s Seahawks in 2010. Times have changed – the Buccaneers are winless, while the Seahawks have the best record in the NFC. Because of injury or Greg Schiano, the Buccaneers have had to change quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. Seattle’s Legion of Boom is built to give teams like Tampa Bay serious problems, as Buccaneers WR Vincent Jackson is the only difference-maker for rookie QB Mike Glennon. The Seahawks are starting to get stretched on offense, but QB Russell Wilson is 11-0 at home.

Ravens over Browns: This is a rematch of the Ravens’ Week 2 victory that saw the Cleveland Browns give up on their inheritance from Mike Holmgren. Out for Cleveland are QB Brandon Weeden and RB Trent Richardson, in are QB Jason Campbell and WR Josh Gordon, who was suspended to open the season. The Ravens are coming off of the bye week, and they’re playing the Browns – John Harbaugh’s Ravens have never lost in either case (5-0 after bye weeks, 11-0 versus Browns, including a 25-15 win at Cleveland last year after the bye). Former Baltimore RB Willis McGahee hasn’t gained more than 72 yards rushing in Cleveland this season, while Ravens RB Ray Rice hasn’t gained more than 74 yards rushing for Baltimore this season. The Ravens have been at their best when they have stopped the run, and after allowing seven TD passes in the season opener, Baltimore has allowed only four TD passes in their last six games.

Patriots over Steelers: The Patriots were the only team to make any kind of deal at the trade deadline, trading for Eagles DT Isaac Sopoaga. The cause to act was the 31st-ranked run defense, as teams have chosen to attack a defensive line missing DT Vince Wilfork rather than test a secondary that is playing better than any New England secondary over the last few years. It is hard to see how the Steelers effectively move the ball, especially with CB Aqib Talib returning after two weeks off. The Patriots haven’t been great at passing the ball, but for the first time in awhile, they may be able to run on the Steelers. Pittsburgh has already allowed as many rushing TDs this season as last (9), while allowing over 100 yards rushing per game for the first time since 2003.

Texans over Colts: It appears that Houston QB Case Keenum is Tony Romo to Matt Schaub’s Drew Bledsoe. In other words, don’t underestimate Keenum’s ability to execute, especially coming off of a bye week. This will be the first game the Indianapolis Colts play without Reggie Wayne or Marvin Harrison since 1998. With the Indianapolis run game stuck in the mud with RB Trent Richardson, there will be a lot of pressure on Colts QB Andrew Luck. If the Texans can get something from their zone-blocking run game (RBs Arian Foster and Ben Tate are injured), they can pull off another prime time home upset against the Colts, much like the San Diego Chargers did three weeks ago.

Bears over Packers: When Bears backup QB Josh McCown started at Green Bay in 2011, Roy Williams was his top receiver while QB Aaron Rodgers threw five TD passes. With the Bears playing their worst defense in years, Rodgers and rookie RB Eddie Lacy could still go off, so it will be up to McCown to put up enough points to knock off the Packers at Lambeau Field. The Bears are an offensive team now, and with RB Matt Forte, WRs Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey, and TE Martellus Bennett, they will have more than enough skill to test a Packers defense that has allowed 12 TD passes vs. only three INTs. Rodgers has never lost to the Bears at Lambeau Field, but with the Bears coming off of a bye, this is an opportunity for new Chicago head coach Marc Trestman to put his mark on this historic rivalry.

-1SKILLZ