I can’t be here too long. I just need to get a point of record on the site being that I started the 2019-20 season on here, guided the people through all of the months, and gave you the Bandwagon Report. The sports content on #TheNU is going to be muted indefinitely (which is why you didn’t see the NFL Hypothesis Report for the first time in a decade), but we’ll phone this in for posterity!
Which brings us to the most stressful NBA Finals since I started this site. That’s because the Los Angeles Lakers are playing. Finally, they face the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. We were ready for this for the 2011 NBA Finals when the Lakers were defending champs and LeBron James made The Decision. But what happened in 2011, Anthony Davis?
so who all think the Lakers are about to get swept today!! I do!!!
— Anthony Davis (@AntDavis23) May 8, 2011
That’s right, the Lakers were swept by the Dallas Mavericks in the semifinals, who wound up beating the Heat in the 2011 Finals. That was the last year before this one that the Lakers advanced further into the postseason than the LA Clippers! Lakers fans were sick in 2012 when LeBron James won his first title. The following year, the Lakers got Dwight Howard and Steve Nash — only to get swept once again in 2013 against the San Antonio Spurs, the team that lost to the Heat in the NBA Finals.
The Lakers hadn’t made the postseason since. But it’s 2020, the worst year EVER. So the Lakers are back in the NBA Finals, as we all expected in the autumn (despite their silly fanbase reaching for nonbelievers). But I thought it would be the Milwaukee Bucks that they’d meet in the Finals. (I also thought we’d have the Finals in JUNE, but noooooo.) Instead of the Bucks, or the Boston Celtics, the #5 seed Miami Heat are here. I’d be excited, except it’s 2020. We all know how this is going to end.
No NBA team lost more games from 2013-2019 than the Lakers. They were so bad, not even LeBron James could get them to the playoffs in his first year there. But they got Davis this year, and they got by the Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets, and Denver Nuggets. That’s more playoff series wins than the previous nine seasons combined — or, since the last time the Lakers won the championship in 2010. The Lakers did not have the face the #2 seed LA Clippers; the less said about them, the better. The Oklahoma City Thunder, Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks also lost in the quarterfinals.
The Lakers are really about to go through this postseason not having to face a single top-two seed. Not their problem, but Phil Jackson would either give them an asterisk or admit to inconsistency. Which brings us to the #5 seed Heat. Miami had to play against three teams seeded higher than them, and they eliminated the #4 Indiana Pacers, the #1 Milwaukee Bucks, and the #3 Boston Celtics. The defending champion Toronto Raptors lost Game 7 to the Celtics in the semifinals, while the Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets and Orlando Magic were eliminated in the quarterfinals.
The Lakers will be going for their 17th NBA championship, which will tie the Celtics for most in the league. Five of those championships came in Minneapolis without a shot clock, though. Never forget that part when Lakers fan brings up how Boston 8-peated in the 1960s. This is the first Finals that pits two teams that both missed the playoffs the year before. Failing up at its FINEST! I respect the Heat CULTure, though — they were almost in the postseason in 2019 and 2017, getting eliminated in the last week. The Lakers haven’t played a meaningful game in April since 2013. The tank was real, and in the end, LeBron James wanted to be closer to Space Jam 2 — and told Anthony Davis to demand a trade.
@KingJames aye bron follow me bro..going to #UK
— Anthony Davis (@AntDavis23) May 13, 2011
@_BryanCrawford naw naw naw….no "KOBE" fans in my house….
— Anthony Davis (@AntDavis23) April 1, 2011
I guess it helped that Davis was always a LeBron fan first. Speaking of looking up to big brother, Bam Adebayo is here! Now he has to stop his Kentucky ancestor from winning Finals MVP on his head.
@AntDavis23 https://t.co/maAP9qNym3
— 13am Adebayo? (@Bam1of1) April 21, 2016
We have Jimmy Butler, who is on his fourth team in four years and will be trying to beat LeBron James for the first time in the postseason in this being his third try. We should have always known Butler would be a Heat at some point…
Shout out to @DwyaneWade and @KingJames good people. Won't even front..
— Jimmy Butler (@JimmyButler) March 15, 2012
And, last but not least, we have LeBron James. The 2x NBA MVP and Finals MVP of the Miami Heat. I can’t stress this enough. Lakers fan wished failure on LeBron James so much that they became surrogate Golden State Warriors fans for his entire run in Cleveland 2.0. Some Lakers fans (some, not NONE) had such disdain for LeBron James that they ruined murals (plural) of James in the summer of 2018 when he signed with the Lakers. Even now, Lakers fans would take solace in the zero chance they lose this Finals by using it as another opportunity to blame LeBron James and say “Kobe wouldn’t have allowed this to happen” — as if the Lakers didn’t blow a 3-1 lead in 2006, or lose in the 2004 and 2008 NBA Finals. Only thing I hate is to see it.
I’ve said enough… likely too much. A lot of hoop has gone down, and there’s still more hoop to go down. Let’s take a look at the paper.
HEAT PERIMETER OFFENSE vs. LAKERS PERIMETER DEFENSE
The key matchup here is Miami SF Jimmy Butler against Los Angeles SF LeBron James. Butler is a driver, and a big reason why the Heat were the best team in the league at getting to the free throw line this season. The Lakers were a bottom-10 team at keeping foes off the stripe. But Butler missed all nine 3s he attempted against the Lakers in November and December. Miami will need shooters like SG Duncan Robinson, PG Goran Dragic, PF Jae Crowder and backup rookie SG Tyler Herro to be on point; they hit a concerning cold snap in the Conference finals, and the Heat shot 24% from 3 against the Lakers this season. James can defend Butler when it matters, and the Lakers have active perimeter defenders in PG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG Danny Green, and backup SG Alex Caruso.
Advantage: Lakers
HEAT INTERIOR OFFENSE vs. LAKERS INTERIOR DEFENSE
It’s going to be tough sledding for Heat C Bam Adebayo, as he’ll have to deal with some combination of Lakers PF Anthony Davis, C JaVale McGee and backup C Dwight Howard. Adebayo had five of his shots blocked in Miami’s December loss to the Lakers, and Adebayo was held to only 23 points in the two regular season meetings combined. Crowder and backup Miami C Kelly Olynyk will not contribute to the interior offense or on the offensive glass. McGee was particularly impactful against the Heat during the regular season, grabbing 20 rebounds and blocking six shots in only 34 minutes.
Advantage: Lakers
HEAT CONTROL vs. LAKERS PRESSURE
This will be a major problem for the Heat, as they were a bottom-10 team in protecting the ball this season while the Lakers were a top-3 team at taking the ball away both in the regular season and postseason. This is one reason why PG Goran Dragic is starting instead of PG Kendrick Nunn, who has been on the fringes of Miami’s postseason rotation. The Lakers gamble for big plays often, and they have the length and recovery ability to do so effectively.
Advantage: Lakers
HEAT PRESSURE vs. LAKERS CONTROL
The Heat aren’t great at forcing turnovers, but it is arguably the worst factor of the Los Angeles offense. The Heat forced 11 turnovers of LeBron James in the regular season, and while none of Miami’s guards get steals consistently, that’s made up for by the active hands of Butler, Crowder and backup SF Andre Iguodala. Caldwell-Pope is the nominal starter, but his job is to avoid mistakes; Los Angeles backup PG Rajon Rondo is the only other Laker who consistently displays plus-playmaking ability, but his risks sometimes backfire.
Advantage: Draw/Heat
HEAT INTERIOR DEFENSE vs. LAKERS INTERIOR OFFENSE
As good as Adebayo is, he’s only 6’9″. In the regular season, Miami started C Meyers Leonard, and it did not go well; the Heat were outscored by 27 points in Leonard’s 28 minutes against the Lakers this season. Leonard is out of the rotation now, and I’d rather see rookie C Chris Silva (questionable, pubic bone stress factor) be the Miami emergency option over Leonard and Olynyk for when Adebayo gets in foul trouble. Adebayo did well to avoid fouls against the Lakers, but Davis did whatever he wanted against the Heat this season, making 11 field goals in each of the two meetings. Miami did a great job of containing (not STOPPING) Giannis Antetokounmpo in the semifinals. The only thing Davis does better than Antetokounmpo is shoot. But that skill, combined with the fact that Davis has LeBron James to spoonfeed him buckets, will make it harder for Miami to focus on containing Davis like they did Antetokounmpo. 61.3% of Antetokounmpo’s field goals against the Heat were unassisted, while only 38.3% of Davis’ field goals have been unassisted this postseason. This really comes down to the fact that Miami doesn’t have enough help inside to help Adebayo. The zone is going to have to see extended stretches.
Advantage: Lakers
HEAT PERIMETER DEFENSE vs. LAKERS PERIMETER OFFENSE
I do not believe that Jimmy Butler can defend LeBron James. When James gets into scoring mode, it won’t matter that the Heat have waves of defenders familiar with James to go to. Those options will include Crowder, Iguodala, backup PF Derrick Jones Jr. and backup SF Solomon Hill in addition to Butler. Robinson and Herro are going to have issues defensively if James hunts. But while the Heat saw James and Davis combine to make 12/24 (50%) 3s in the regular season, the other Lakers combined to shoot only 8/45 (17.8%) 3s. Miami will need Lakers such as Green, Caldwell-Pope, Rondo, Caruso, backup SF Kyle Kuzma and backup PF Markieff Morris to continue bricklaying.
Advantage: Draw/Heat
HEAT SPECIAL TEAMS vs. LAKERS SPECIAL TEAMS
I’ve explained basketball special teams here in the Lightweight Reports. The pace will be relatively slow in this Finals, but the Lakers cherrypick more than any team in the playoffs. That will show up in the fastbreak scoring margin. Miami’s free throw shooting is consistently in the low 80s, while Los Angeles is in the mid 70s. Both teams have strong depth, though Miami’s comes in the form of wings while Los Angeles has the bulk. Miami arguably has the most confident bench scorer in the series with Herro, who is finding 16.5 points per game in the postseason despite being a rookie on a team with all five starters in double figures. The only bench player averaging double figures for the Lakers is Kuzma, and he’s only at 10.5 points per game. The Lakers have been at their best this postseason with Kuzma on the bench.
Advantage: Heat
HEAT COACHING vs. LAKERS COACHING
Erik Spoelstra has had to deal with a lot in his 12-year tenure as Miami head coach. He got two rings, but Spoelstra was considered a survivor of the LeBron James head coach trope. Former Heat and current Laker Dion Waiters undermined Spoelstra even before Miami traded Waiters, as Waiters attributed Spoelstra’s championships to James. Spoelstra has earned his respect in the last six sesasons while keeping the Heat afloat, and winning the East is arguably his greatest accomplishment as a head coach. Spoelstra also had no problems with Frank Vogel’s Indiana Pacers, beating them three years in a row. Of course, Vogel has James now. Credit Vogel for always believing in his roster and adjusting accordingly with the personnel he has available. If the semifinals is any indication, Miami’s version of microball won’t faze Vogel. And Vogel has the confidence that comes with sweeping the regular season series.
Advantage: Draw/Heat
INTANGIBLES
This series won’t be played in June at STAPLES Center or AmericanAirlines Arena. It’ll end in October at Walt Disney World in Florida. The logistics of a neutral court and no fans benefits the Heat. But the “narrative” has been with the Lakers all of 2020.
Advantage: Lakers
BOTTOM LINE
Miami had a dreadful performance in Los Angeles in November, but that was on the second night of a back-to-back at the end of a Western Conference road trip on a Friday night. Miami was much better against the Lakers five weeks later, but still came up just short because they had issues dealing with the size disadvantage. Miami is not going to use as much size this time around, and won’t rely on their youth as much. But I don’t think players such as Dragic, Crowder, and Iguodala make up for the fact that James is better than Butler, and Davis is better than Adebayo. Davis is going to be the reason the Lakers win this series. But just like Pau Gasol in 2010, Davis will be robbed of the Finals MVP award. The Heat will win Game 3, but that’s it. And we’ll have to be subjected to the NBA being great again because the Lakers won, making the other 29 teams relatively irrelevant. It’s a result fitting of 2020.
Prediction: Lakers in 5.
-1SKILLZ