NFL 2015 Week 9 Gameplan

Through 8 weeks, I’ve been up four times and down four times. This past week was another down week, as the Week 8 Gameplan produced a 6-8 record.  Now, I enjoyed this past week. We’re in November, with 4 undefeated teams. I was surprised there were undefeated teams by the end of September. I have a midseason review coming next week (if I hold up to that…), and that will be fun.

One reason it will be fun for you all reading is that I’ll have to keep explaining how off I was on certain teams. For now, let’s look back at my struggles from Week 8:

– I’ve usually been solid on TNF, but the Dolphins were washed out by New England’s pass offense for 342 yards and 4 TDs.

– What a game by Buccaneers rookie LB Kwon Alexander at Atlanta to earn NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors – 11 tackles, an INT, and a forced/recovered fumble where he chased down Atlanta WR Julio Jones, all just days after losing his brother.

– The Browns had a 20-7 lead on the Cardinals, but then Arizona scored the last 27 points of the game – the Cardinals ended up with 342 pass yards and 4 TDs.

– The Bengals received two 4th quarter gift INTs from Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger that turned the game from a 10-6 Pittsburgh lead at Heinz Field to a 16-10 Cincinnati road win.

– Rams rookie RB Todd Gurley, aka The Toddfather, is a problem – he has 125+ rushing yards in four straight games, and he broke open a scrum with the 49ers with a 71-yard untouched TD run.

– The 49ers might be the new Raiders, while the current Raiders have a pass offense that is more than competent – Oakland QB Derek Carr and his receivers embarrassed AFC New York’s secondary for 4 TDs and 333 pass yards.

– The Seahawks went to Dallas and allowed fewer than 100 passing yards for the 3rd time this season.

– No team averages more rushing yards per game than the Panthers (144.0), but Carolina K Graham Gano recovered from a missed PAT to hit a 52-yard game-winning FG in OT to keep his team undefeated.

This is the lightest week on the NFL calendar, with 6 teams off. After this week, 24 of 32 teams will have had a bye week:

Arizona: The Cardinals are sitting atop the NFC West with a 6-2 record. The last time the Cardinals were 6-2 was way back in 1976, when the team was based in Saint Louis. The Cardinals actually found a way to miss the playoffs that year despite a 10-4 finish, due in large part to losing back-to-back games to then-division rivals Dallas and Washington. Arizona started 7-1 last year, but they were swept by Seattle and lost a Wild Card game on the road. Arizona is getting a career season from QB Carson Palmer, who is on pace to throw 40 TD passes. Palmer has only thrown 30 TD passes one season in his career (2005). Palmer’s torn his ACL twice since then, but he has more TD passes this season (20) than sacks (11) and INTs (6) combined.

Baltimore: The Ravens are 2-6 for the first time since 2005, a season that saw Baltimore finish 6-10. Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh has never had a losing season, but this defense is awful. They’re allowing a passer rating of 106.9, which ranks 29th in the NFL, and they haven’t forced a turnover in five straight games. Both marks are the worst in franchise history.

Detroit: The Lions were throttled in London by the Chiefs, which marked the first game after firing offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and two OL coaches. The dismissals kept coming after London, as GM Martin Mayhew and President Tom Lewand were removed by owner Martha Ford. The team is 1-7 for the first time since Mayhew’s first full season in 2009, so you can say things have come full circle. The Lions had the worst defense in the league in 2009, allowing 35 TD passes against only 9 INTs. Well what do you know, the Lions are allowing the most points per game in the league (30.6).  They allowed 4 rushing TDs to a Kansas City team missing RB Jamaal Charles. I was a big fan of defensive coordinator Teryl Austin last year, but there’s no way he or head coach Jim Caldwell are back with the team unless they begin looking like last year’s team. This has been a bottom-five season in Lions history, and that says a lot.

Houston: The Texans started 3-5, with the losses looking way worse than the few wins they’ve been able to cobble together. That said, they’re in the AFC South. The last time Houston started 3-5, they finished 8-8 in 2008. If former head coach Gary Kubiak can get another win with the Broncos this week in Indianapolis, then the Texans would be in first place in the division coming out of the bye week. I know you all don’t like stats like this, but it must be pointed out: the Texans are 3-0 when they allow fewer than 90 rushing yards, 0-5 when they allow at least 90. NT Vince Wilfork has been invisible (2 solo tackles all season); he is a big key to the team’s improvement going forward.

Kansas City: The Chiefs are 3-5 for the first time since 2004, when they finished 7-9. The Chiefs are going to need more from a passing game that ranks 20th with 226.6 pass yards per game, especially with Charles out for the season with his second career torn ACL.

Seattle: In QB Russell Wilson’s rookie season, the Seahawks started 4-4. They won the last five games of that season to earn a Wild Card berth at 11-5, behind the strength of a Legion of Boom secondary that allowed the fewest points in the NFL. The Seahawks have embarrassed teams that are obviously struggling, but that 2nd-ranked total defense holds up through at least 3 quarters every week.

Let’s get to Week 9:

2015 #NFL Week 9 picks (6-8 in Week 8, +5 for 2015): CIN, BUF, GB, MIN, NE, NO, NYJ, OAK, SF, NYG, IND, DAL, CHI

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) November 5, 2015

Cleveland at Cincinnati: This was from Thursday night – so I’ll just share what I said surrounding the game here:

#TNF: #Bengals had league-low 20 sacks last year. Already 20 this year. Manziel a fumbler when he scrambles. Can Hill get going? #CLEvsCIN

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) November 6, 2015

Since 2011, the only former 1st round TEs to have 9 TDs in a season are Vernon Davis (13 in 2013) and now Eifert #TNF #CLEvsCIN

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) November 6, 2015

Drew Brees, 1st 75 games: 106 TD, 64 INT, 223.5 pass YPG, 87.5 rating Andy Dalton, 1st 72 games: 117 TD, 70 INT, 235.9 pass YPG, 88.0 rating

— Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) November 6, 2015

Miami at Buffalo: Of course the Bills opponent coming out of the bye week is a team that played on the previous Thursday, but the Bills battered the Dolphins in Week 3, and this is probably the healthiest Buffalo has been since that first meeting in September.

Green Bay at Carolina: This is the Game of the Week, and the biggest Packers/Panthers game since the 1996 AFC Championship; expect the Packers to have an easier time with Carolina’s WRs than they had with Denver’s last week.

Saint Louis at Minnesota: The winner of this game will have a top-two spot in the Wild Card picture, and with the RBs will be the focal point of this matchup, the key for the Vikings is keeping rookie Saint Louis RB Todd Gurley under 125 yards.

Washington at New England: Washington is coming off a bye, and they’ve allowed only one TD to a TE and no receiving TDs to RBs this season; New England will have to go outside to put the most pressure on Washington’s defense.

Tennessee at New Orleans: The Titans just replaced Ken Whisenhunt (3-20 as Tennessee head coach) with interim head coach Mike Mularkey (3-20 in his last 23 games as NFL head coach); New Orleans TE Ben Watson already has more receiving yards this season than the previous two seasons combined, and he’ll be a key target against a good Tennessee secondary.

Jacksonville at New York Jets: The Jets are back home after back-to-back road losses that exposed the secondary; New York needs to take advantage of a Jacksonville offensive line that has struggled in enemy territory.

Oakland at Pittsburgh: The Raiders have had one team’s number during their post-Super Bowl 37 drought of success, and that team is the Pittsburgh Steelers, losers of 4 of the last 5 to Oakland; it’s going to be a long day for Pittsburgh’s CBs.

Atlanta at San Francisco: The only way that the 49ers pull off the upset is if they continue their streak of no turnovers (currently at 4 games) while capitalizing on an increasingly mistake-prone Falcons team (multiple turnovers in 4 straight games) that can’t rush the passer (only 10 sacks this season).

New York Giants at Tampa Bay: New York QB Eli Manning lost a game despite throwing 6 TD passes without an INT; now he and WR Odell Beckham Jr. get the 2nd-worst pass defense in the NFL.

Denver at Indianapolis: The Colts will be welcoming former QB Peyton Manning at a time when Manning needs 284 passing yards and a win to break Brett Favre’s records; Indianapolis has to get the kind of game from their secondary that they got in the 2014 AFC Divisional game that eliminated Denver in January.

Philadelphia at Dallas: The Eagles were dreadful at home against the Cowboys offensively in Week 2, and now they go to Dallas with LT Jason Peters out with a back injury, with usual RT Lane Johnson filling in on the blindside ¹ and Dennis Kelly entering the lineup.

Chicago at San Diego: This will be Chicago QB Jay Cutler’s first game at San Diego since leaving the AFC West after the 2008 season; the last 4 Bears games have been decided in the final seconds, and while both Cutler and San Diego QB Philip Rivers will be facing bad pass defenses, Cutler will have his top receiver in WR Alshon Jeffery.

INDIANAPOLIS – JANUARY 4: Quarterback Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts speaks to quarterback Jake Plummer #16 of the Denver Broncos during the AFC playoff game on January 4, 2004 at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Colts beat the Broncos 41-10. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images)