The 2011 NFL Hypothesis Report: Revisited

It’s the NFL midseason, and so I get to fall back and reassess some positions taken in The 2011 NFL Hypothesis Report.  For those wondering how I’m doing on game picks so far, I’m +30 after nine weeks.  None of you fools commented on the original article, so I shall deprive you (RE: spare you) of an extended introduction while we hit the books one time for your mind, with the original predictions to aid perspectives:

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills (5-3; predicted: 5-11, 4th): Yes, the Bills have as many wins now as I thought they’d have all season.  Leading the league in takeaways has been a big factor, as well as head coach Chan Gailey getting great production from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and RB Fred Jackson.  But the Bills are still an undertalented team on both sides of the ball, and Fitzpatrick is starting to turn the ball over too much.  The Bills will also be missing NT Kyle Williams for the rest of the season.

New England Patriots (5-3; predicted: 12-4, 2nd): I’ve been writing about the Patriots all season on NFL Touchdown and will link their midseason report here eventually.  I’ll say this: While the defense is getting criticized for giving up gobs of yardage, the bigger concern is the turnover differential.  Last year, the Patriots led the league.  This year, they’re middle-of-the-pack at 15th.  And that’s on QB Tom Brady, who has 20 TDs but also 10 INTs.  Oh, and WR Chad Ochocinco (9 catches) and DT Albert Haynesworth (released) have proven to be colossal wastes of time.

New York Jets (5-3; predicted: 12-4, 1st): The Jets took a three-game road losing streak to figure out what kind of team they are.  Ground ‘n’ Pound is back, and it’s here to stay for the rest of the season.

Miami Dolphins (1-7; predicted: 5-11, 3rd):  One of the more comically dysfunctional teams in the NFL (see: Reggie Bush, Brandon Marshall, Vontae Davis, owner Stephen Ross).  Look no further than the 14:2 TD-INT ratio opposing QBs have against the Dolphins to see why they started 0-7.

AFC NORTH

 Cincinnati Bengals (6-2; predicted: 2-14, 4th): Needless to say, I had no idea the Bengals would be able to pull a five-game winning streak together (or anything more than a one-game winning streak) this season.  Rookie QB Andy Dalton and rookie WR A.J. Green have been better than former QB Carson Palmer and WR Chad Ochocinco; not just compared to last year either.  Those two are putting up better numbers than the stars they replaced numbers from 2008-2010.  The defense has also played outstanding, allowing 3.3 yards a run (#1 in the league) and racking up 20 sacks (they had only 27 all of last season).  Now, we’ll see what they can do against the Steelers and Ravens for four games.

Baltimore Ravens (6-2; predicted: 11-5, 2nd):  Sweeping the Steelers was huge for this team, which overshadows their complete no-shows at Tennessee and Jacksonville this season.  The defense has been scary this year (already 26 sacks after getting only 27 all of last year, allowing only 3.4 yards a carry, second overall), and rookie WR Torrey Smith’s speed has been QB Joe Flacco’s saving grace in at least a couple games this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3; predicted: 13-3, 1st): The Steelers put themselves in a hole by losing to the Ravens twice.  Looking at their schedule though, I don’t know how they lose another game before the playoffs.  I am fully aware that they face the Bengals twice and travel to San Francisco.  We’ll have to reanalyze their defense and/or coaching if they lose another game.

Cleveland Browns (3-5; predicted: 4-12, 3rd):  I’m convinced that the Browns have three wins (Colts, Dolphins, Seahawks) only because the games didn’t make it to overtime to put a tie into play.  Now that RB Peyton Hillis has been “Madden Cursed” in spectacular fashion, the Browns may prove to have the most impotent offense in the NFL when it’s all said and done.  They’re 5th in the NFL in passing attempts, yet still 25th in passing yards to go along with a league low 3.1 yards a rushing attempt.

AFC NORTH

Houston Texans (6-3; predicted: 11-5, 1st): The other AFC divisions all have virtual three-way ties for first place (three teams in AFC North have six wins, three teams in AFC East have five wins, three teams in AFC West have four wins).  The Texans hold a two-game lead and have beaten all of their flagging division rivals at least once already.  You can’t even really call them lucky either.  RB Arian Foster missed two games early, WR Andre Johnson has missed five straight games, FS Danieal Manning broke his leg, and OLB Mario Williams was lost for the season after five games.  Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has completely turned the defense around (24 sacks, 66.9 opposing passer rating, #1 overall) while RBs Arian Foster and Ben Tate run through defenses.

Tennessee Titans (4-4; predicted: 7-9, 3rd): The Titans are an average football team that lost their best offensive playmaker when WR Kenny Britt tore his ACL in Week 3.  At least RB Chris Johnson’s game translated smoothly from the NFL Lockout to the NBA Lockout.  2,000 rushing yards?  Johnson should concentrate on getting to 1,000 total yards (366 rushing yards, 206 receiving yards, 1 rushing TD, 0 receiving TDs, 3.0 yards a carry, 6.6 yards a reception).

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6; predicted: 3-13, 4th): Congratulations to head coach Jack Del Rio for finally getting the Jaguars to play respectable defense (5th overall).  He’ll instead get fired for allowing rookie QB Blaine Gabbert (and before him, QB Luke McCown) to completely tank the Jaguars offense.  In all fairness to Gabbert, the Jaguars have arguably the worst WRs in the NFL.  At least Cam Newton has Steve Smith in Carolina and Andy Dalton has A.J. Green in Cincinnati.  But at least Newton and Dalton can complete more than 46% of their passes and average more than 5.2 yards a pass attempt.

Indianapolis Colts (0-9; predicted: 10-6. 2nd):  This is the most appalling football team in the NFL.  This is more than just Peyton Manning being out.  This is more than just poor planning around a neck injury. (Retired Kerry Collins?  No undefeated season Curtis Painter? 0-16 Lions Dan Orlovsky? REALLY?!)  The Colts are 31st in the NFL on offense and defense.  If Peyton Manning played this season, this still wouldn’t have been a playoff team.  The Colts can Suck for Luck all they want.  They can make wholesale changes in the coaching staff.  This team has major personnel issues at every position, and it can certainly get worse.

AFC WEST

San Diego Chargers (4-4; predicted: 12-4, 1st):  I’m not ready to say the sky is falling in San Diego just yet.  Sure, we thought they were better than this, especially QB Philip Rivers (14 INTs).  Rivers is pressing too much to overcompensate for injuries, the loss of RB Darren Sproles, and a defense that has fallen way off from last year.  They’re in the right division to go through a slump though, and there’s enough talent on the team to still get into the playoffs.  Anything less should cost head coach Norv Turner his job, as it’s on him that players at almost every position on the team are underachieving.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-4; prediction: 9-7, 2nd):  Just in case you wanted to take the Chiefs seriously, they just lost 31-3 to the Dolphins at Arrowhead Stadium.  Next.

Oakland Raiders (4-4; prediction: 6-10, 3rd):  Sure, QB Carson Palmer might eventually stop throwing three INTs a game (something that injured QB Jason Campbell has only done once in his career, and never as a Raider).  But Palmer will have to do a lot of scoring to aid the Raiders’ perennially embarrassing run defense (giving up 5.2 yards a rushing attempt).

Denver Broncos (3-5; prediction: 5-11, 4th):  QB Tim Tebow is a painfully inefficient passer (46%, 5.5 passing yards an attempt, sacked/fumbling/hit way too many times), but he has a 6:1 TD-INT ratio and offers an exceptional running threat.  Head coach John Fox may have to bench him eventually, but then again, it won’t matter who’s playing QB for the Broncos if the secondary allows the opposing QB to rack up anything close to the 103.6 passer rating they allowed so far this season.  The Broncos have given up an NFL-high 17 TD passes.

 NFC EAST

New York Giants (6-2; prediction: 13-3, 1st):  Turns out those playmakers on both sides of the ball turned out to be second-year undrafted players WR Victor Cruz (17.4 yards per 34 catches) and TE Jake Ballard (17.2 yards per 23 catches) on offense and second-year DE Jason Pierre-Paul (9.5 sacks) and disgruntled veteran DE Osi Umenyiora (6 sacks in five games) on defense.  Oh, and QB Eli Manning (career-highs of 98.8 passer rating, 8.5 passing yards per attempt) hasn’t been too bad either.  There’s not another gimme left on their schedule though so they better keep it up; they were 6-2 last year as well only to blow it at the end.

Dallas Cowboys (4-4; prediction: 9-7, 3rd): Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan needed to get shut up on national television, and the Philadelphia Eagles took a break from their cliff dive to do that for those who missed the Calvin Johnson show (a.k.a., “the third best Cowboys receiver”) and Tom Brady’s 4th quarter comeback against the “amoeba defense”.  The Cowboys probably wish they had Megatron, because WR Miles Austin will be out again with his hamstring injury.  The Cowboys are a good team that will be hurt by the games they blew and the injuries to key players like Austin and ILB Sean Lee.

Washington Redskins (3-5; prediction: 2-14, 4th):  It’s tough luck to have injuries to WR Santana Moss, TE Chris Cooley, RB Tim Hightower, and myriad offensive linemen.  It’s head coach Mike Shanahan’s complete lack of a clue when it comes to QBs that the Redskins went into this season with QBs Rex Grossman (inaccurate turnover machine) and John Beck (pusillanimous refusal to look downfield and do anything other than check down or get sacked).  That’s two years in a row Shanahan screwed up the QB situation in Washington.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5; prediction: 11-5, 2nd): The Eagles didn’t get a Pro Bowl linebacker or safety, and the cornerbacks are all underperforming.  So despite the big pass rush, the Eagles have still allowed a lot of TD passes and rushing yards (5.0 yards a rushing attempt).  But the bigger problem is that it’s too easy to take away WR DeSean Jackson’s deep routes (only two TDs as he’s proving how one-dimensional he is) and it’s too easy to take away the football from the Eagles (QB Michael Vick is having a great season, but he has nine INTs and eight fumbles).  The Eagles are also wasting a once-in-a-career season from RB LeSean McCoy.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (8-0; prediction: 11-5, 1st):  QB Aaron Rodgers is ripping through the NFL with 24 TDs and 3 INTs and is easily front-running the MVP race.  He kind of has to, because the Packers defense (ranked 30th overall) survives on the league-leading 16 INTs they have gathered from QBs trying to keep up with the Packers’ ridiculously deep passing attack.

Detroit Lions (6-2; prediction: 7-9, 3rd):  The Lions are playing well, especially when you look at QB Matthew Stafford’s TD-INT ratio (19:4), WR Calvin Johnson’s general dominance (17.1 yards per 47 catches, 11 TDs) and the smothering pass defense (the Lions have 24 sacks, 11 INTs, and are allowing a less than six yards a pass attempt).  It is fair to be concerned about the Lions’ run game with RB Jahvid Best’s latest concussion and the Lions’ run defense (allowing 5.2 yards a run).  The playoffs aren’t a foregone conclusion as they will need to stop an elite RB or QB in almost every game for the rest of the season.

Chicago Bears (5-3; prediction: 10-6, 2nd):  This is just a solid football team that lost three games to three of the best teams in the NFC (Saints, Packers, Lions).  They cut SS Chris Harris and benched FS Brandon Meriweather and replaced them with second-year SS Major Wright and rookie FS Chris Conte, stabilizing the defense somewhat.  The offensive line has been good enough to let RB Matt “PayTheMan” Forte go off in anger (1,241 total yards from scrimmage, 5.4 yards per carry) and didn’t allow QB Jay Cutler to be sacked once in Philadelphia.  They’re not going to go away easy.

Minnesota Vikings (2-6; prediction: 3-13, 4th):  The Vikings did what they had to do, benching QB Donovan McNabb for rookie QB Christian Ponder and cutting WR Bernard Berrian about a year too late.  Credit the Vikings two best players for attempting to carry the offense (RB Adrian Peterson, with 10 total TDs, has more points than K Ryan Longwell) and defense (DE Jared Allen has 12.5 of the Vikings’ 24 sacks) as they rebuild.

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints (6-3; prediction: 14-2, 1st):  QB Drew Brees is still turning the ball over too much (11 INTs), the defense still isn’t forcing a lot of turnovers (only 4 INTs so far this season while allowing 14 TD passes and 5.3 yards a carry), and first-round rookies RB Mark Ingram (3.9 yards a carry) and DE Cameron Jordan (no sacks) have been unspectacular.  They’re dangerous, but the bad loss in Saint Louis shows they are vulnerable as well.

Atlanta Falcons (5-3; prediction: 11-5, 2nd):  It’s hard to get a read on the Falcons, a well-coached football team that really doesn’t stand out in any area.  It’s been a good thing for the Falcons that RB Michael Turner and TE Tony Gonzalez have delayed their declines for the time being.  QB Matt Ryan is taking a lot more sacks and turning the ball over much more than he has in the past, but he also has a deep threat in rookie WR Julio Jones that he hasn’t had in the past either.  Ryan will need to be ready for his two games against the Saints.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4; prediction: 8-8, 3rd):  The Buccaneers are a young team that needs to keep taking steps forward.  QB Josh Freeman (8 TDs, 10 INTs) and WR Mike Williams have taken steps back.  DT Gerald McCoy is out for the year again with an arm injury, which hurts a defense that has continued to struggle to rush the passer (12 sacks) and stop the run (4.9 yards per carry allowed).

Carolina Panthers (2-6; prediction: 4-12; 4th):  The Panthers have been competitive in every game they’ve played this season, but the fact is that they’ve lost six winnable games.  QB Cam Newton exceeded my foolishly low expectations by carrying the Panthers offense and it’s a shame his defense and special teams has been so bad.

NFC WEST

San Francisco 49ers (7-1; prediction: 7-9, 2nd):  Perhaps QB Alex Smith just needed a former QB like head Jim Harbaugh.  He has been a bit of a revelation with 10 TDs and only 2 INTs while handing off to RB Frank Gore and letting the smothering defense take home victories.  The 49ers have five games against the rest of the division left, but they’ll also face the Giants, Ravens, and Steelers.

Arizona Cardinals: (2-6; prediction: 5-11, 3rd):  QB Kevin Kolb has put up pedestrian numbers and is now injured.  This was predictable.

Seattle Seahawks (2-6; prediction: 3-13, 4th):  I’m still not sure who has a worse QB situation between the Redskins and Seahawks. 

Saint Louis Rams (1-7; prediction: 10-6, 1st):  Former head coach Scott Linehan didn’t make it past the bye week of his third season, going 11-25 in his 36 games.  Head coach Steve Spagnuolo hasn’t lost the locker room yet in Saint Louis, but through 40 games he has a record of 9-33.  This year’s Rams team was supposed to be able to compete every week like they played against the Saints.  Instead, the Rams have been completely awful on offense (dropped passes and injuries have been the worst culprit) and defense (they have been crushed by injuries to the top three CBs and they still can’t stop the run).  

That’s all I’ve got for now.  Hit up the comment box, and until then I’ve got you later!

-1SKILLZ