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Nov 21 2012

The 2012 NFL Hypothesis Report (Thanksgiving Reset)

It’s the NFL midseason, and so I get to fall back and reassess some positions taken in The 2012 NFL Hypothesis Report.  For those wondering how I’m doing on game picks so far, I’m +25 after eleven weeks.  None of you fools commented on the original article, so I shall deprive you (RE: spare you) of an extended introduction while we hit the books one time for your mind, with the original predictions to aid perspectives:

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (7-3; predicted: 11-5, 1st):  The Patriots are preparing to play their first game without Rob Gronkowski or Randy Moss since 2006.  For now, they are the most complete offense in the NFL and have the fewest turnovers in the league.  Of course, they also give up over 300 yards a game through the air and have allowed 21 TDs.  The acquisitions of WR Brandon Lloyd and CB Aqib Talib will determine how much better the Patriots will be going forward.

New York Jets (4-6; predicted: 11-5, 2nd): The biggest problem with QB Mark Sanchez is his arm.  Simply put, he completes too low a percentage (career low 54%) for too few plays down the field (6.5 yards an attempt).  But because head coach Rex Ryan didn’t give the former “Sanchize” legit competition this year, this was to be expected.  QB Tim Tebow was bought in to distract people from the real issue: Mark Sanchez doesn’t play well enough to make his backup irrelevant.  What is probably more disturbing for Ryan’s team is the barely average defense his team has played up front.  Ryan’s defense went from #1 in 2009, to #3 in 2010, to #5 last year to #14 now, allowing a generous 4.4 yards a run and only getting 17 sacks.  That said, when the Jets force multiple turnovers, they’re 4-1.

Miami Dolphins (4-6; predicted: 8-8, 4th): Wide receivers have only caught three TDs all season, and while they have a top-five run defense (allowing 3.8 yards a run), they haven’t won without winning the turnover battle (0-6).

Buffalo Bills (4-6; predicted: 10-6, 3rd):  Yes, the Bills have as many losses now as I thought they’d have all season.  They need to keep getting C.J. Spiller the rock; he already has over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and is averaging 6.6 yards a run.  While QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (17 TDs, 10 INTs) might be replaced next year, he hasn’t been the biggest problem.  That would be your 32nd ranked run defense and a secondary that has allowed 19 TD passes with only 8 INTs.

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens (8-2; predicted: 12-4, 1st): If yards are important to you, the Ravens aren’t playing well (#21 offense, #25 defense).  If points are important to you, the Ravens look like an 8-2 team (#7 offense, #9 defense).  It shouldn’t be a surprise then that the Ravens are dead last in time of possession.  Fact is, the Ravens have one close loss, one blowout loss, two blowout wins, and six wins that have made for interesting fourth quarters.  Offensively, the Ravens don’t do anything spectacular.  They just ask QB Joe Flacco and RB Ray Rice to do their jobs, score, and protect the football.  Defensively, the Ravens are bending a lot, but haven’t quite broken.  The pass defense (8 TDs, 11 INTs) has been an example of this, giving up a lot of yardage but few scores.  And WR Jacoby Jones has scored three return TDs already, giving the special teams an element they didn’t have last season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4; predicted: 11-5, 2nd): It was only a matter of time that QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 TDs, 4 INTs) was going to get hurt, but I’ll be fair, because the Steelers were on pace for allowing their fewest sacks since Roethlisberger was drafted.  The Steelers have the best defense in the league without SS Troy Polamalu, allowing 3.8 yards a run and the fewest passing yards in the league.  But they have only 18 sacks and have only one game where they have forced multiple turnovers.

Cincinnati Bengals (5-5; predicted: 7-9, 3rd): WR A.J. Green (911 yards, 10 TDs) has been even better this season, and though QB Andy Dalton (20 TDs, 11 INTs) struggled with INTs this season, he has started finding other guys to throw TDs to.  They’re not going to get much more out of RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis than what we’ve seen (3.5 yards a carry).  The Bengals pass rush has been devastating (30 sacks), and they need to continue to improve the pass defense (12 TDs allowed, 7 INTs, 67% of passes completed) to make the Wild Card chase interesting.

Cleveland Browns (2-8; predicted: 3-13, 4th): Rookie RB Trent Richardson has ran hard (5 TDs, three 100+ yard games), but not all that efficiently (3.7 yards a carry) – he also leads the team in receptions.  Rookie QB Brandon Weeden is putting up rookie numbers (2,298 yards, 11 TDs, 12 INTs, 56% completions).  Rookie WR Josh Gordon has big play ability (4 deep TDs, 19.6 yards a catch) but is inconsistent (only 24 receptions).  The defense looks better when CB Joe Haden (five missed games) and DT Phil Taylor (eight missed games) are in the lineup.  Head coach Pat Shurmur’s job depends on the progress made by these five players.  A special note here for K Phil Dawson, who hasn’t missed a kick yet this season.

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans (9-1; predicted: 13-3, 1st): Other than ILB Brian Cushing, the Texans have avoided catastrophic injury so far this season.  They’re the best team in the league right now, with the sixth best offense and fourth best defense.  QB Matt Schaub (96.8 passer rating), RB Arian Foster (12 total TDs), WR Andre Johnson (870 receiving yards 3 TDs), and TE Owen Daniels (535 yards, 5 TDs) are Texas quadruplets offensively, while DE J.J. Watt (11.5 sacks, 11 passes defended) shows up every week.  Even without Cushing, the Texans have allowed 3.9 yards per run and zero rushing TDs.  I will say that the Texans secondary better tackle better than they did against the Jaguars’ receivers.

Indianapolis Colts (6-4; predicted: 2-14, 4th):  The Colts have won six games, which says a lot about their ability to win the close ones (5-1 in games decided by less than a TD).  Of course, they’re 0-4 in games where they’ve lost the turnover battle.  QB Andrew Luck has been great at times, but he can stand to be more consistent (12 TDs, 12 INTs, 57% completions, 2,965 yards, 5 rushing TDs).  WR Reggie Wayne has over 1,000 yards receiving already, and Luck has multiple WRs (Donnie Avery, T.Y. Hilton) and TEs (rookies Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener) to attack, as well as multiple RBs (rookie Vick Ballard, Donald Brown, Delone Carter) to keep things balanced.  Defensively, the Colts are still pretty bad, allowing 18 TDs and only 4 INTs and 4.7 yards a run.  

Tennessee Titans (4-6; predicted: 5-11, 2nd):  The Titans probably wish they could see the Dolphins every week for the rest of the season.  The Titans have played some bad football this season, losing every game in which they have been held under 20 points and allowing 30 or more points seven times.  The young talent on offense will give the Titans a chance to win every week, but it’s the 30th ranked defense that needs to make the most strides. There is little pass rush, passers have completed over 70% of passes and 20 TDs against them, and they allow 4.4 rushing yards a game.  But maybe they’ll look good coming out of their bye.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9; predicted: 3-13, 3rd): Even when things go right for the Jaguars (rookie WR Justin Blackmon’s breakout game in Houston), things go wrong (QB Blaine Gabbert benched for not making the plays QB Chad Henne made).  Of course, Blackmon had 250 yards and one TD in the nine games before he went off for 236 yards and an 81-yard TD that reminded you why he was a first round pick.  Unfortunately, the Jaguars can’t run the ball without RB Maurice Jones-Drew (RB Rashad Jennings averaged less than three yards a carry).  Defensively, the Jaguars have only 12 sacks.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (7-3; predicted: 11-5, 1st): QB Peyton Manning (24 TDs, 7 INTs) has led a flaming hot offense, but now the Broncos will see how they operate without a feature back, as RB Willis McGahee (952 total yards, 4 rushing TDs) is on temporary IR.  The Broncos have played much better defense than expected.  SLB Von Miller isn’t a surprise (13 sacks, stellar run defense), but guys like WLB Wesley Woodyard are.  Since giving up 251 rushing yards at New England, the Broncos have only allowed 337 rushing yards total during their current five-game winning streak.

San Diego Chargers (4-6; predicted: 8-8, 2nd): We’ve watched Norv Turner’s Chargers for six seasons now.  A win streak might be around the corner, but so might the next wave of multi-turnover games from QB Philip Rivers.  Rivers has still thrown 17 TDs and has completed a career-high 67% of his passes, but he has 14 INTs already.  The biggest problem is that RB Ryan Mathews hasn’t taken much pressure off of Rivers this season (one TD, zero 100-yard rushing games).  The defense has played the run well (allowing 3.8 yards a run), but has allowed 19 TDs and only 9 INTs.  To make matters worse, the special teams appears to be failing again as P Mike Scifres has had multiple punts blocked.

Oakland Raiders (3-7; predicted: 6-10, 4th): The Raiders looked like they had something going until this three-game losing streak exposed their lack of talent on defense.  QB Carson Palmer looks a lot like he did in Cincinnati, but that just means he hasn’t made much of a difference on a bad team.  RB Darren McFadden has predictably struggled both to run the ball (3.3 yards a run) and stay healthy.  The Raiders always struggle to defend the run (4.5 yards per run and 14 rushing TDs allowed), but now they can’t even get to the passer (11 sacks).  And to make matters worse, passers have a 101.3 rating against the Raiders.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-9; predicted: 7-9): This team is about to get blown up.  Everyone must go: GM Scott Pioli (for turning the Chiefs into the Cleveland Browns), head coach Romeo Crennel, all of the QBs (Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn have combined for six TDs and 15 INTs), offensive coordinator Brian Daboll (this team has 31 turnovers), defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs (Crennel’s already fired himself as coordinator).  The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per attempt on the ground and a 102.9 passer rating.  

NFC EAST

New York Giants (6-4; predicted: 10-6, 3rd): The Giants definitely have that Super Bowl bulls-eye on, and they were wearing down going into the bye week.  QB Eli Manning has rarely been sacked this season (Giants have allowed only 13) but he’s slumping badly (1 TD, 6 INTs in last four games).  The Giants have forced 27 turnovers and have 25 sacks, but the secondary and run defense get called out for a reason. The Giants allow 4.4 yards a run and 8.1 yards per pass attempt.  They’re a dangerous, yet inconsistent football team.

Dallas Cowboys (5-5; predicted: 12-4, 1st): In five wins, QB Tony Romo has thrown 7 TDs and 2 INTs.  In five losses, those numbers are 6 TDs and 11 INTs.  Life would be easier for Romo and the Cowboys if they could rely on their running game. RB DeMarco Murray has missed five games and RB Felix Jones has been so ineffective that Murray still leads the team in rushing despite Jones not missing a game this season.

Washington Redskins (4-6; predicted: 7-9, 4th): Rookie QB Robert Griffin III isn’t asked to do as much as some of the other rookie QBs, but he has put up very efficient numbers (12 TD passes, 3 INTs, 67% completions, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 613 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs) considering the void of playmakers.  Along with rookie RB Alfred Morris (869 rushing yards, 4.7 yards a run, 5 TDs), the Redskins have a top-five running game.  The Redskins are struggling mightily to defend the pass, giving up over 300 yards a game and 20 TDs.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-7; predicted: 11-5, 2nd): The Eagles are an example of what poor coaching and abysmal offensive line play can do to a team. The Eagles are averaging 16.2 points per game, failing to top 24 points yet this season.  They haven’t been that bad since the late 1990s.  The Eagles set a new franchise record for points three seasons in a row (2008-2010), so the fall from grace has been shocking. The Eagles have 24 turnovers and have allowed 33 sacks already.  QB Michael Vick can’t stay healthy or take care of the ball (ten fumbles), RB LeSean McCoy has more fumbles (four) than rushing TDs (two), and the entire defense is underachieving no matter who is coordinating it (only 16 sacks and 7 INTs while allowing 18 TD passes and 4.3 rushing yards a game).  The Eagles could very well be 0-10 right now.  They will be in full-blown rebuilding mode once Andy Reid is dismissed.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (7-3; predicted: 11-5, 2nd): The Packers, like the Eagles, have serious protection issues (32 sacks allowed).  Unlike the Eagles, QB Aaron Rodgers (27 TDs, 6 INTs) has kept his team above water despite an inconsistent group of runners and the absence of WR Greg Jennings. The defense has been banged up all season as well, but they have 33 sacks (OLB Clay Matthews has nine) and have allowed only 56% of passes to be completed.  The Packers are getting to a point where they can’t trust K Mason Crosby (11/18 FGs).

Chicago Bears (7-3; predicted: 13-3, 1st): The Bears continue to be who we think they are: A team getting a career year from WR Brandon Marshall, awful offensive line play, and top-five play from their defense.  When the Bears don’t win the turnover battle, they are a vulnerable team considering their lack of consistent offense outside of Marshall.  RB Matt Forte has been a little underwhelming this season (only four games with over 100 total yards).

Minnesota Vikings (6-4; predicted: 4-12, 4th): RB Adrian Peterson blew his entire knee out, then comes back stronger?  He has been a legitimate MVP candidate, as he is averaging career-highs in rushing yards a game (112.8) and per attempt (5.8).  QB Christian Ponder has struggled to consistently move the ball through the air down the field (6.4 yards per attempt), and he’ll have to step up and find some guys with WR Percy Harvin (677 receiving yards) trying to stay healthy.  The Vikings still haven’t done well against QBs, giving up 17 TDs and only 5 INTs, but that’s progress from last year.  The Vikings have a difficult schedule coming out of the bye (twice against Bears, twice against Packers, games in Saint Louis and Houston).

Detroit Lions (4-6; predicted: 6-10, 3rd): WR Calvin Johnson has been largely Madden-proof (1,117 receiving yards), but the Lions have been inconsistent on offense (QB Matthew Stafford has only two multi-TD games this season), defense (only 11 takeaways), and special teams (allowed four return TDs).

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons (9-1; predicted: 8-8, 1st): Even with a five-INT debacle against the Cardinals, QB Matt Ryan has a 94.8 passer rating and is averaging over 300 yards passing a game.  DE John Abraham has been very good again (9 sacks), but they need SLB Sean Weatherspoon to return and improve one of the worst run defenses in the league (allowing 5.0 yards per run).  RB Michael Turner has slowed to the point where he can’t get anything going anymore (career-low 3.7 yards per run).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4; predicted: 3-13, 4th): Even more than the Colts or Vikings (or Eagles), I was wrong on the Buccaneers. This is an explosive offense, with QB Josh Freeman (21 TDs, 7 INTs, 56% completions, 7.9 yards an attempt), RB Doug Martin (1,319 yards and 8 TDs from scrimmage), and WRs Vincent Jackson (20.5 yards a reception, 7 TDs) and Mike Williams (17.6 yards a reception, 5 TDs) ripping up defenses.  Head coach Greg Schiano and rookie SS Mark Barron and rookie WLB Lavonte David totally turned around this run defense (from 5.0 yards per run to a league-low 3.4 yards per run).  Passers are averaging a league-high 323 passing yards a game, but the Buccaneers are third in the NFL in INTs.

New Orleans Saints (5-5; predicted: 6-10): The Saints started 0-4 in 2007, got to .500, then fell to 7-9.  This year, the Saints took a little longer to get to .500 after an 0-4 start.  QB Drew Brees is averaging 40 attempts a game, but he also has 28 TDs and is starting to get a lift from the running game.  The problem with the Saints is the fact that they have the worst defense in the league, giving up over 400 yards in every game this season. They have allowed 21 TD passes and 8.5 yards an attempt in the air, while allowing 5.1 yards a run.

Carolina Panthers (2-8; predicted: 6-10, 3rd): The Panthers were 2-8 last year too, but there isn’t much optimism about this year’s team because QB Cam Newton (9 TD passes, 4 rushing TDs) has regressed.  The Panthers have been held under 20 points five times this season, and are 0-6 in games decided by 7 points or less.  RBs Jonathan Stewart (3.6 yards per run) and DeAngelo Williams (3.4 yards per run) are having career-worst seasons, and FB Mike Tolbert (52 rushing yards) has been underused all year.  The Panthers have improved up front defensively.  DEs Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy have combined for 15.5 sacks, DT Dwan Edwards has five sacks this season (he had 5.5 the first eight years of his career), and rookie ILB Luke Kuechly has played well.  But the secondary has been torched all season.

NFC WEST

San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1; predicted: 14-2, 1st): Apparently, it doesn’t matter who plays QB for head coach Jim Harbaugh.  Alex Smith has played even better than last year (13 TDs, 5 INTs, 8 yards per attempt, 70% completions), but Colin Kaepernick excited the masses by getting TE Vernon Davis the rock, showing poise, a strong arm, and ball security against a defense that has forced multiple turnovers in every other game.  The real key to the 49ers’ success has been a running attack that is tops in the NFL, and a defense that is both stingy against the run (3.7 yards an attempt) and the pass (only 6 yards per attempt allowed).  OLB Aldon Smith already has 15 sacks as well.  If there’s a concern for the 49ers, it is the shaky play of K David Akers, who has missed six FGs.

Seattle Seahawks (6-4; predicted: 9-7, 2nd): The Seahawks are right behind the 49ers defensively, although Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson did serious work on them.  In a pass happy league, Seattle has attempted the fewest passes in the league.  RB Marshawn Lynch is arguably more effective this year than last year, averaging a career-high 100.5 yards rushing per game and 4.7 yards per carry.  If the Seahawks, can get rookie QB Russell Wilson to play on the road like he’s been playing at home (11 TDs, 0 INTs), watch out.  Wilson has thrown all 8 of his INTs on the road.

Arizona Cardinals (4-6; predicted: 5-11, 3rd): The Cardinals are wasting more than their top-ten defense and WR Larry Fitzgerald’s prime.  They’re wasting a 4-0 start with some of the worst offensive line play this side of Chicago (44 sacks allowed, 3.6 yards per rushing attempt).  Head coach Ken Whisenhunt has burned through five QBs since Kurt Warner retired in 2010, and unless rookie QB Ryan Lindley completely shocks us, he’ll be the sixth.

Saint Louis Rams (3-6-1; predicted: 3-13): With RB Steven Jackson slowing down and getting slowly phased out, QB Sam Bradford hasn’t taken his game to the next level.  He’s not bad, but he’s not a difference maker yet.  This is the sixth straight season that the Rams are averaging less than 20 points a game.  The Rams haven’t made anything happen on defense during their five-game winless streak (11 TD passes allowed, no takeaways).

In addition to these midseason assessments, you can catch me every week on “NTFL”, Neon Tommy’s NFL webshow with Ryan Nunez!

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-1SKILLZ

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