The 2012 NFL Hypothesis Report

Never let them see you sweat.

After last year’s super-abstract about the method of the 1SKILLZ NFL Hypothesis Report, I won’t dare be repeating that level of depth here.  You should already know the drill.  You should also know that I’m PROcrastinating like a champ (sorry, Neon Tommy) and need to just post something before the NFL season kicks off on a Wednesday night (thanks, Democratic National Convention).

For those of you hot-clickers who didn’t check out last year’s link, here’s a convenient outline:

• I’ll share with you my picks, but understand that it is simply a hypothesis; a barometer if you will.  Once again, I picked all 256 regular season games on the NFL schedule.
• I predict all of these games before the regular season and don’t change a single pick until the playoffs, no matter how drastically different a team can get over the course of a season.
• In the scientific method, my hypothesis are these predictions based off of nine factors: passing offense (offense), rushing offense, offensive line, pass rush, run stop, pass coverage (defense), and special teams, as well as coaching and intangibles.  I don’t grade the last two factors but they figure into my game-to-game matchups.
• The games are the experiment that tests every prediction.
• Crazy stuff happens in games, and it’s a field day for people like me to break it all down.  That’s where I go to work: ANALYSIS.
• I hold myself accountable for my outrageous methodology, but respect the 2011 record: 158-98.  If you picked all 256 games before the season last year without changing a single pick, then you’re on my level.

Now, the only change this year is that I saved all of my charting and prognosticating until after the month of August ended.  That’s insanity, but if you know my summer, you understand the cause for the delay.

Above: The summer.

Alright, I’ve spoken too much.  Now for a supremely compromising version of the 2012 NFL Hypothesis Report, which I’m sure will need to be explained in depth during Election Week:

AFC

EAST: New England Patriots (11-5, 3rd in AFC), New York Jets (11-5, 6th in AFC), Buffalo Bills (10-6), Miami Dolphins (8-8).

The Patriots are top heavy offensively, and it will be interesting to see if the young talent will be on the same page defensively.  The Jets are inept offensively due to severe talent deficiencies, but no one talks about how pissed off this talented defense could be.  The Bills are eager to keep their running backs involved for a full season, and they might even have a clue on defense for once.  The Dolphins will struggle to move the ball this year, and their defense would look really good if they could cover anyone.

NORTH: Baltimore Ravens (12-4, 2nd in AFC), Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5, 5th in AFC), Cincinnati Bengals (7-9), Cleveland Browns (3-13).

Losing OLB Terrell Suggs hurts, but the Ravens might compensate by letting QB Joe Flacco maximize his physical abilities for once.  The Steelers are still a brutish team defensively, and QB Ben Roethlisberger has speed to burn on the outside, but he’ll continue to run for his life behind that offensive line.  The Bengals have a sound, fundamental group on both sides of the ball, but outside WR A.J. Green there is a dearth of gamebreakers.  I’m tired of discussing the Browns and their complete lack of direction; their goal should be to make sure rookies RB Trent Richardson, QB Brandon Weeden, and WR Josh Gordon aren’t worse by the end of the season.

SOUTH:  Houston Texans (13-3, 1st in AFC), Tennessee Titans (5-11), Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13), Indianapolis Colts (2-14).

The Texans won ten games last year while having to rely on the backups of QB Matt Schaub, RB Arian Foster, WR Andre Johnson, and the since departed DE Mario Williams; the offense is healthy and motivated while the defense has a lot of active talent.  As talented as the Titans are at the skill positions, I can see their offense suffering from spells of inefficiency as QB Jake Locker tries to fix his slightly Tebow-esque accuracy and make up for a vanilla defense.  If the Jaguars played in a big northeastern market, you’d be tired of the panic surrounding QB Blaine Gabbert’s pocket presence and RB Maurice Jones-Drew holding out of the preseason; instead, the Jaguars will go quietly into the night hoping MJD isn’t this year’s Chris Johnson.  Andrew Luck is ready for the NFL, but the Colts are bringing one of the most shallow rosters in the league into the season, and you know your defense is in trouble when your owner is excited about adding CB Vontae Davis to the roster.

WEST: Denver Broncos (11-5, 4th in AFC), San Diego Chargers (8-8), Kansas City Chiefs (7-9), Oakland Raiders (6-10).

I guess I expect new Broncos QB Peyton Manning to cerebrally frustrate defenses with his oversized receivers and allow DE Elvis Dumervil and OLB Von Miller to rush the passer with reckless abandon, all while avoiding a fifth neck surgery.  The Chargers are trying to mask the fact that we’ve seen the best of QB Philip Rivers, but injury-prone RB Ryan Mathews, a shaky offensive line, and a suspect secondary won’t help keep Rivers’ turnovers down.    The Chiefs get three talented ACLs back (RB Jamaal Charles, TE Tony Moeaki, SS Eric Berry) but will QB Matt Cassel take advantage in a make-or-break season?  The Raiders might actually look like a real football team this season, but barring a groundbreaking year of health from RB Darren McFadden, the Raiders figure to have some growing pains this year on both sides of the ball.

AFC WILD CARD: Patriots over Jets, Steelers over Broncos.

AFC DIVISIONAL: Steelers over Ravens, Texans over Patriots.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Texans over Steelers.

NFC

EAST: Dallas Cowboys (12-4, 3rd in NFC), Philadelphia Eagles (11-5, 6th in NFC), New York Giants (10-6), Washington Redskins (7-9).

The physical and mental availability of QB Tony Romo, RB DeMarco Murray, and WR Dez Bryant will determine how smooth the Cowboys’ offense is, and new CBs Brandon Carr and rookie Morris Claiborne will hopefully make Cowboys Defensive Coordinator/NOT-head-coach Rob Ryan look less like an idiot on national TV.  QB Michael Vick won’t start 16 games, but as long as RB LeSean McCoy is the centerpiece of the offense and new MLB DeMeco Ryans teaches the defense how to tackle, the Eagles won’t take until December to gel.  The Giants are the defending Super Bowl champs, but they were also a 9-7 team last year; they’ll be good but they have at least one unspeakable crisis a year, and it will probably be defense related this year.  It’s about time Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan got a QB; rookie Robert Griffin III makes the Redskins an exciting team that hopefully won’t be one of the most careless teams in the league.

NORTH: Chicago Bears (13-3, 2nd in NFC), Green Bay Packers (11-5, 5th in NFC), Detroit Lions (6-10), Minnesota Vikings (4-12).

The Bears have a wretched offensive line (what’s new…) but QB Jay Cutler got WR Brandon Marshall and lost Mike Martz, head coach Lovie Smith always seems to have a sound defense and special teams, and one look at the Bears’ schedule has you wondering who they paid off.  There is no way Packers MVP QB Aaron Rodgers has a 45:6 TD-INT ratio again, but there is also no way the Packers’ secondary can blow any more coverages.  The Lions are going to be explosive offensively until the Madden cover curse strikes (sorry, Calvin Johnson); and the Lions’ not-so-much-improved defense got way worse as last season went along (allowed at least 27 points in eight of last nine games, including 45 points in playoffs).  The Vikings won’t scare anyone until RB Adrian Peterson proves his health, and if DE Jared Allen isn’t sacking the QB, the secondary better not turn into a circus.

SOUTH:  Atlanta Falcons (8-8, 4th in NFC), New Orleans Saints (6-10), Carolina Panthers (6-10), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13)

I’m excited for the Falcons to let QB Matt Ryan open the offense up, but even with CB Asante Samuel, are they ready to air it out after four years of featuring RB Michael Turner?  Nothing wrong with the Saints’ offense led by QB Drew Brees, but their defense has an understated shortage of playmakers, and there will be moments where Bountygate hurts this team on the field.  As exciting as dual-threat QB Cam Newton and the Panthers’ offense is, this team has been starving for help on the defensive line for years now.  The Buccaneers have gone from a complete lack of discipline to a compromise of talent in the name of discipline under new head coach Greg Schiano – QB Josh Freeman struggles to get in rhythm, and this might be the worst front seven in the league.

WEST: San Francisco 49ers (14-2, 1st in NFC), Seattle Seahawks (9-7), Arizona Cardinals (5-11), Saint Louis Rams (3-13).

The 49ers had to have been sick about how little depth they had in January, so they added a surplus of offensive talent with questionable impact to go with a formidable defense.  The Seahawks have a strong defense, and rookie QB Russell Wilson is the starter because he showed he could handle the playbook, but also because his mobility makes RB Marshawn Lynch better and makes up for what could be a problematic offensive line.  The Cardinals have a respectable defense, yet are set to waste that and WR Larry Fitzgerald’s prime over a terrible situation at quarterback.  The Rams need to show that they can win the trenches under new head coach Jeff Fisher; not getting QB Sam Bradford killed would be great this season.

NFC WILD CARD:  Eagles over Cowboys, Packers over Falcons.

NFC DIVISIONAL:  Eagles over 49ers, Packers over Bears.

NFC Championship: Packers over Eagles.

SUPER BOWL XLVII

PACKERS over TEXANS.

That’s all I’ve got for now, but for more ridiculous statements on your least favorite NFL teams, follow the Twitter bug.  I might even get to write for Neon Tommy this year after three years of covering the New England Patriots for NFL Touchdown and spending the spring at Gridiron Grit covering the NFC West.  In any case, I’ll be around.  Happy fun ball!

Seriously. Happy Fun Ball. !.

-1SKILLZ