2014 NBA Playoffs: The Bandwagon Report

Greetings, and welcome to April Madness!

The NBA playoffs are about to get underway this weekend, and for the fourth year, 1SKILLZ-NetworksUnited is happy to provide the service of The Bandwagon Report. This year, we have a special service to provide all of you wayward sports fans. For the first time ever, this year’s NBA playoffs will not include the New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers, or Boston Celtics.  I’m sure there are many people ruing the day that the NBA playoffs won’t be featured in the New York and Los Angeles markets. (Wait, what’s that? There are still NBA playoff teams in Los Angeles and New York this year? Don’t knock my hustle, chief.) Now, I’m from the same city that came up with the Wing Bowl as a nod to postseason absences and/or futility, and I combine that with a near-complete absence for any feeling for any team – but especially your team. However, in the spirit of charity, The Bandwagon Report will provide you with enough analysis to pick a team that fits you as we wait two months to crown the 2014 NBA champion.

This is the part of the season where we say goodbye to the 14 teams that failed to make the playoffs (Suns, Timberwolves, Knicks, Nuggets, Pelicans, Cavaliers, Pistons, Kings, Lakers, Celtics, Jazz, Magic, 76ers, Bucks). As I wrote last weekend, they will be missed. Now, The NetworksUnited is pleased to announce that this year’s Bandwagon Report will be sponsored by the Wizards Bandwagon Cam!  Finally, your disregard for rooting for a team will be featured in real time, hopefully in all arenas south of the Mason-Dixon Line!

You should know, this post will not be about making predictions for you – I did all of that in October, so I have no reason to add more predictions! When the Lightweight Report was released before the season, I anticipated a few teams dropping out of the postseason picture from last year. Those teams included the Nuggets, Lakers, Celtics, and Bucks.  All of those teams dropped way out of the frame. However, while I anticipated the Knicks slipping, I didn’t see them missing out altogether. As it stands, I was off on three pairs of playoff teams: Raptors over Knicks (two words: Andrea Bargnani), Bobcats over Pistons (Pistons were the only team to fire their head coach during the season), and Mavericks over Timberwolves (marking the second straight year the Timberwolves missed the playoffs when I thought they should have made it). In addition to the Raptors, Bobcats, and Mavericks, there are two more new playoff teams in Portland and Washington.

Yes, half of the playoff teams play in either the Southwest or Southeast divisions! Plenty of that Texas/Southern flavor – for better or worse!

*Team records are NFL-style 16-game splits, with the last two games added at the end. The Formula are the five factors commonly seen in championship teams (Free Throw Eligible, All-Star Point Guard Warning, Top-Ten Defense, Death By Jumpshot Warning, 4,000 Club).

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 – San Antonio Spurs (14-2, 11-5, 10-6, 13-3, 14-2, +0): I picked the Spurs to win the title in October, and they responded by earning homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. If that makes you feel good about jumping on the bandwagon, go right ahead. They’re well-coached, their depth is phenomenal, they kept all of their players healthy by keeping every player under 30 minutes a game (the only team in the league to do that), and they finished the season with the West’s best defense. Power forward Tim Duncan, who turns 38 this month, was fifth in the league in blocked shots and was the only player in the league who had more blocks (139) than fouls (134). There are some things a bandwagon fan must consider though. One, the Spurs have never won consecutive conference titles. Two, no team in NBA history has ever won a title in a season in which they attempted more threes than free throws. The Spurs finished dead last in free throw attempts this past season. Three, their only All-Star was their point guard, Tony Parker, who didn’t come close to averaging five three throw attempts per game this past season. Four, there are two owners of the San Antonio Spurs at the moment: Peter Holt and the Oklahoma City Thunder. And five, they don’t have an easy road to round two, having split the season series with Portland while getting swept by Houston. After all of that consideration, your spot on the Spurs bandwagon is a leap of faith – even for the only 60+ – win team in the league.

#8 – Dallas Mavericks (10-6, 9-7, 8-8, 11-5, 10-6, +1): The 2011 NBA champions are back in the playoffs after missing out last year for the first time since 2000. Acquiring all of those free agent guards, namely new starters Monta Ellis and José Calderón, really helped take Dallas’ offense to another level. Only two teams had a better offensive efficiency rating better than Dallas, as All-Star power forward Dirk Nowitzki made more threes this past season (131, 39.8%) than any season since 2003. As a team, Dallas was second in the league in three-point percentage, as Calderón and Vince Carter made well over 100 threes at a high clip. Unfortunately, Dallas is facing the team that led the league in three-point percentage in the first round. And Dallas has had no answer for San Antonio lately, having been swept by the Spurs each of the last two seasons. In addition to that, the Mavericks enter the playoffs as the oldest team in the West (six rotation players 30 and over) and as the worst defense in the playoffs (22nd overall). Dallas really needed the 7th spot to fill a bandwagon – as of now, it might be just about empty.

#4 – Houston Rockets (11-5, 10-6, 10-6, 13-3, 9-7, +1): Looking for the new-age Wade and Shaq? Get on the Houston bandwagon, featuring All-Stars James Harden and Dwight Howard! The Rockets enter the playoffs with the fastest pace among all the playoff teams, and they used those extra possessions not only to attempt and make the most threes in the league, but to attempt and make the most free throws in the league as well. And unlike the old Yao-McGrady teams, these Rockets feature one of the best third-bananas in the league in small forward Chandler Parsons, a player versatile enough to hit nearly two threes a game as well as finish third on the team in dunks and assists per game. Last year’s starters, point guard Jeremy Lin and center Omer Asik, are this year’s bench, thanks in part to the emergence of defensive gnat Patrick Beverley and power forward Terrence Jones. The biggest concerns with a Rockets bandwagon? Turnovers – both controlling them and forcing them. The Rockets aren’t a bad defensive team overall, but they’re not a championship-level defense either, and only the 76ers (also known as Rockets East) turned the ball over more than Houston. If you don’t mind not having a great defense, too many turnovers, and the worst group of free throw shooters in the playoffs, ride with the Rockets!

#5 – Portland Trail Blazers (13-3, 12-4, 9-7, 8-8, 10-6, +2): For a minute, the Portland bandwagon was rising. The Blazers were the only 4,000 Club team ¹ that missed the playoffs in 2012-2013. This season, 2013 Rookie of the Year point guard Damian Lillard joined power forward LaMarcus Aldridge in the All-Star Game, center Robin Lopez solidified the team’s rebounding, and the Trail Blazers wound up finishing second in the league offensively. As you can see, the team dropped off every interval of the season until the last month when they straightened up and solidified their playoff spot. And that’s where the bandwagon is struggling. Portland is the new team on the block, and while their offense was strong, their defense was not. Steals aren’t everything, but the Trail Blazers tied an NBA-record for fewest steals per game in a season, ² and point guards torch them relentlessly. That won’t be as much of a problem in the first round, but then again, the Trail Blazers haven’t been out of the first round since Game 7 of the 2000 Western Conference Finals. Portland is also a team that will live and die by the jumper. They hit those jumpers, as Lillard and backcourt mate Wesley Matthews both hit over 200 threes. But riding the Blazers bandwagon means that you are living and dying along with them on those threes and Aldridge’s mid-rangers.

#2 – Oklahoma City Thunder (13-3, 12-4, 13-3, 9-7, 11-5, +1): Maybe you need a player to convince you to be on the team’s bandwagon. If that’s the case, the Thunder present to you the likely 2014 Most Valuable Player, All-Star small forward Kevin Durant. Durant carried a heavy load this season with his point guard, Russell Westbrook, missing the first 36 regular season games of his career. He responded by leading the NBA in scoring with a career-high 32.0 points per game, dropping a career-high 5.5 assists per game, and playing a league-high 3,122 minutes. The Thunder are big at every position most of the time, and power forward Serge Ibaka blocked a league-high 219 shots to go along with career-highs of 15 points per game and 8.8 rebounds per game. The Thunder are one of the three teams that meet all of the criteria for The Formula, and the only two teams that they lost season series to have a slim-to-none chance of meeting them in the playoffs (Phoenix missed the playoffs, Dallas is highly unlikely to win two playoff series). And now, Westbrook is healthy after being on a minutes restriction for most of the season. The only thing that can slow up the Thunder bandwagon may be head coach Scott Brooks, who isn’t known for making Durant’s life easier offensively or utilizing his best lineups. OKC has more than enough firepower, and they’re still a top-ten defense. But the slippage on defense since Christmas has been a concern, especially since they allow so many open jumpers, and Durant shot only 25% from three in April.

#7 – Memphis Grizzlies (8-8, 6-10, 12-4, 12-4, 10-6, +2): The Grizzlies found themselves under .500 going into the new year, and in a tough Conference, their bandwagon must have been nonexistent. And then center Marc Gasol came back and skulls were being crushed again. While Gasol is a skilled, bulky player, the real catalyst for these Grizzlies continues to be power forward Zach Randolph, who averaged a double-double for the seventh time in the last eight seasons. Under new head coach Dave Joerger, the Grizzlies also slightly improved their offense. Unlike last season when the team went through the Clippers and Thunder to make a run to the Conference Finals, this Memphis squad added a couple of shooters in shooting guard Courtney Lee and backup wing Mike Miller.  Now, before you remember how rough it is to face the Grizzlies in the postseason, keep in mind that they do have a first-time head coach, and that this year’s Grizzlies team lost three of four games to Oklahoma City this season. Memphis will be tough, slow, and physical. But if you want to be on their bandwagon, you are hoping that they steal a series or two without an All-Star, which will be tough to do.

#3 – Los Angeles Clippers (11-5, 10-6, 12-4, 11-5, 12-4, +1): Quick note: I’ve been contributing to ESPN Truehoop affiliate Clipperblog since spring, and I wrote this first-round preview article a couple of weeks ago. As you may imagine, I’ve watched a lot of Clipper basketball since returning to the United States, and other than the Spurs, no playoff team has been steadier throughout the regular season. When 10-6 represents your season’s low-point, and that’s coming mostly in December, you’re playing consistently well. Like the Spurs and Thunder, the Clippers have a top-ten offense and defense, and like the Thunder, the Clippers hit all of the marks of The Formula. All-Star point guard Chris Paul continued to do his thing, leading the NBA in assists and steals per game. All-Star power forward Blake Griffin emerged as a consistent force in his fifth year since being the first pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, and center DeAndre Jordan led the league in rebounds and field goal percentage while averaging a career-high 10.4 points per game and blocking 203 shots. Oh, and they have a championship-caliber head coach in Doc Rivers, a scorer off the bench in Jamal Crawford, and an abundance of complementary pieces. The Clippers went only 3-4 against the Thunder and Spurs, the last two Conference Champs, and 0-4 against the Pacers and Heat, so, besides the fact that “they’re the Clippers,” it will take a real optimist to think they will win it all, even though they certainly can win it all. But that’s what bandwagons are for!

#6 – Golden State Warriors (9-7, 10-6, 10-6, 11-5, 9-7, +2): What a difference a year makes. A sixth-seed Warriors team missed center Andrew Bogut for most of the season, got him back for the playoffs, lose power forward David Lee, and pull off an exciting upset. A year later, the Warriors are dealing with the double “distraction” of head coach Mark Jackson in the Vinny Del Negro part of his tenure as well as a serious injury to Bogut, the lynchpin of their fourth-ranked defense this season. Despite 400 more three-point firebombs from All-Star point guard Stephen Curry and fellow Splash Brother shooting guard Klay Thompson, Golden State’s offense still isn’t a top-ten unit, and they don’t get to the line nearly enough despite forwards like Lee, Andre Iguodala, and Harrison Barnes having the ability to force serious discomfort. However, don’t let me dissuade you from Golden State’s bandwagon. They will play up, and despite their low-seed, no team is more adept at springing upsets in the first-round like the Warriors. ³

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 – Indiana Pacers (15-1, 11-5, 12-4, 9-7, 7-9, +2): For awhile, it was a foregone conclusion that the Pacers and their league-best defense would not only meet the Heat in the Conference Finals, but that they would beat them with the aid of homecourt advantage, Miami postseason fatigue, and Indiana’s own model of progression. And then the All-Star Break happened. And then the trade deadline happened. And while “the others” in the East started to get their stuff together, the Pacers devolved into the league’s worst offense over the last month of the season ⁴. And they still secured the East’s top seed! So what are you, the bandwagon fan, supposed to make of this? Are the Pacers the ascendant team with two All-Stars in small forward Paul George and center Roy Hibbert who led the NBA’s stingiest defense, allowing a league-low 42 percent from the field? Or are they the team that has all the spirit of last year’s 76ers, featuring the great reputations of Evan Turner and Andrew Bynum? The reality is somewhere in the middle. The Pacers do have homecourt throughout the Conference, and they went a league-best 35-6 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. But they also may have tired themselves out playing so many minutes early in the season, and if you’re on this bandwagon, you must have made up your mind about their ceiling months ago. May your stubbornness be rewarded.

#8 – Atlanta Hawks (8-8, 10-6, 7-9, 4-12, 8-8, +1): The Hawks lost center Al Horford to another pectoral tear, and though power forward Paul Millsap stepped up in his first All-Star season, Atlanta nearly tanked their way out of the playoffs. They were the beneficiaries of a weak Eastern Conference, as they are the only playoff team with a losing record. The Hawks admitted that they didn’t even care about the playoffs, which, ironically, is how most of Atlanta feels about their basketball team. So while the Hawks continue to get crickets despite the fact that they now own the East’s longest playoffs streak at seven seasons, you can adopt them as your bandwagon team! And I would argue that with new head coach Mike Budenholzer, “Spurs East” has the best chance out of the four 7 or 8 seeds to pull a first round upset, having split the season series with the Pacers and blowing them out in Indiana only two weekends ago. The Hawks, who lost to Indiana in the first round last year, aren’t good rebounders, they live and die by the three, and they’re thin in the middle. ⁵ But they have a dynamic point guard in Jeff Teague, one of the best shooters in the league in shooting guard Kyle Korver, and a small forward in DeMarre Carroll who won’t be a defensive liability. It’s been over a quarter century since a team with a losing record won a playoff series, but the Hawks can definitely make it interesting.

#4 – Chicago Bulls (7-9, 7-9, 10-6, 11-5, 12-4, +1): The Bulls lose Derrick Rose yet again, then they trade Luol Deng for the right to waive Andrew Bynum while they were four games under .500. Only the Magic and 76ers were worse offensively, as the Bulls shot an NBA-worst 43.2% on the season. And here they are with a record three games better than last season. All-Star center Joakim Noah should be the Defensive Player of the Year, and he set career-highs in total minutes, points, rebounds, assists, and steals while anchoring Chicago’s second-ranked defense. The Bulls played the lowest scoring games in the league, as they scored the fewest points while they allowed the fewest points. Three teams had given up on backup guard D.J. Augustin since 2012, but the former lottery pick played the Nate Robinson role for Chicago and hit 132 threes at a 40% clip. Backup power forward Taj Gibson took more of Carlos Boozer’s minutes than ever, and he’s a Sixth Man of the Year candidate who can score, rebound, and help Noah block shots. Small forward Mike Dunleavy was a better fit for the Bulls than departed free agent Marco Belinelli, and shooting guard Jimmy Butler and point guard Kirk Hinrich sacrifice their own offense to defend. Tom Thibodeau’s team has a very clear identity, and the bandwagon should continue to fill up. Just understand that Rose is not coming back to save this basket-challenged offense. ⁶

#5 – Washington Wizards (7-9, 8-8, 9-7, 9-7, 9-7, +2): The Wizards are back in the playoffs for the first time in six years, and they’re facing the only team that they have a postseason series victory over since 1982. Not that anyone on the Wizards has any connection to the 2005 Wizards who knocked off the Baby Bulls in six games. But the Wizards have a lot going for them, with point guard John Wall becoming an All-Star and making twice as many threes this season (108, 35%) than his first three seasons combined (49/202, 24%). Washington is anchored by a top-ten defense, featuring the quick hands of Wall and small forward Trevor Ariza, and there is a healthy mix of youth (Wall, Bradley Beal, Trevor Booker, Martell Webster) and experience (Ariza, Marcin Gortat, Nene, Andre Miller). Now, there are a lot of reasons why you would be as likely to be on the Wizards Bandwagon Cam. It’s good that head coach Randy Wittman is finally coaching in the playoffs after racking up a terrible coaching record in Cleveland, Minnesota, and Washington before this season. However, he may be the least trusted head coach in a playoff series this year. One part of that lack of trust in Wittman is the fact that the Wizards, especially Beal, led the league in mid-range shots, the least valuable shot in basketball. ⁷ Washington doesn’t shoot well from mid-range, and other than Wall, they don’t get to the free throw line. They had a strong road record at 22-19, but they have the worst home record of any playoff team, also 22-19. And while it is nice that they have a veteran backup point guard in Miller, he has never been good luck to a team’s playoff hopes, as  his teams have lost all nine playoff series he has been a part of.

#2 – Miami Heat (13-3, 11-5, 11-5, 10-6, 9-7, +0): The Pacers got all the press for their second-half crumble bumble, but as you can see, the Heat have declined in performance throughout the season and had the same record as the Pacers over the last month of the season. They are still the most popular bandwagon team out there though, which is what happens when you are the defending NBA champs and feature three All-Stars in 2012 and 2013 MVP/Finals MVP LeBron James, shooting guard Dwyane Wade, and center Chris Bosh. Wade missed 28 games, so James and Bosh did most of the heavy lifting for Miami. The Heat had the best offense in the East, with the Big 3 making well over 50% of their shots from the field. That included Bosh taking almost as many threes this season (74/218, 34%) as his first ten seasons combined (87/302, 29%). There is one thing that all Heat bandwagoners need to know though. The Heat finished with their worst defense in five years, and while 11th overall isn’t particularly bad, only the 1995 Rockets and 2001 Lakers won championships without a top-ten defense. The NBA hasn’t had a team three-peat since 2002, an Eastern Conference team three-peat since 1998, and a team hasn’t appeared in four straight NBA Finals since 1987. That, plus LeBron is overdue for a physical earthquake. If you are squeezing onto Miami’s bandwagon, you better hope Wade’s body checks out and that the Big 3’s option to become free agents over the summer continues to be a non-issue.

#7 – Charlotte Bobcats (7-9, 7-9, 7-9, 9-7, 11-5, +2): You know the Bobcats better as the Bobkittens, the team that set the NBA record for worst winning percentage during the lockout season two years ago and replaced three coaches since their last/only playoff appearance since being swept in the first round back in 2010. Well, Michael Jordan hired the right head coach in Steve Clifford, and he signed the right free agent in center Al Jefferson. With a handful of rotation pieces left over from a 21-61 loss team last year, next year’s Hornets locked down into a top-ten defense and earned a playoff spot. Jefferson had his first 20-10 season since tearing his ACL five years ago, and the Bobcats owned the defensive boards in the process. Unfortunately, you aren’t getting on this bandwagon because they happened to draw the one team that has no time for them in Miami. There’s a real chance that the Heat “tanked” their way out of the top seed, and the Bobcats are 0-15 against the Heat since The Decision. The Bobcats might have to throw a parade if they get their first franchise postseason victory this month. SImply put, the Bobcats don’t shoot well at all, even with Jefferson taking his spot on the left block, and they are like the Wizards in that they take a surplus of bad mid-range shots. If you want to adopt the only Eastern Conference playoff team without an All-Star, go ahead. But you’ll be right back here in a couple of weeks.

#3 – Toronto Raptors (6-10, 10-6, 10-6, 11-5, 10-6, +1): Canada has returned to the NBA playoffs for the first time since 2008. Only this time, I’m going to need you to take this team seriously. Drake, the team’s basketball ambassador, is the most bandwagon fan there is this side of Justin Bieber. But then #WeTheNorth dropped, and focus was retained. Toronto was watching Rudy Gay torpedo the team’s season with terrible shots when, somehow, new general manager Masai Ujiri traded him for a new bench. Ujiri might mess around and repeat as Executive of the Year after that, as the Raptors were the only Eastern Conference team to finish the season with both a top-ten offense and defense. Not only that, they are the only Eastern Conference team to fulfill The Formula, and a big part of that was the emergence of All-Star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan, the decision to keep point guard Kyle Lowry in the midst of a career/contract year, and the improvement of center Jonas Valanciunas. The Raptors have enough size, athleticism, shooting, and lineup versatility, and they should also feel heavily disrespected by their Atlantic division rivals for thinking they’re getting off easy in the first round at their expense. DeRozan got to the line more times per game this past season than LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony, and Toronto also won the rebounding and turnover battles throughout the season. It is Dwane Casey’s first time in the playoffs as a head coach, and other than John Salmons, his top-eight have no experience getting regular minutes in the playoffs. That severe inexperience will could be their downfall, so beware. They also went 0-7 against the Heat and Bobcats this season, and they would face one of those teams Miami in the second round. However, Toronto should have no fear as they look to win their first playoff series since 2001, and neither should you, brave bandwagon fan.

#6 – Brooklyn Nets (4-12, 7-9, 11-5, 11-5, 11-5, +0): What a tricky basketball team. They bring in two future Hall-of-Famers to play, and have another, Jason Kidd, be the head coach of the team. They controversially signed Russian forward Andrei Kirilenko on the cheap to complement the most expensive roster in NBA history. They re-assign assistant coach Lawrence Frank to do “daily reports”. Kidd spills a drink to steal a timeout. And after losing Brook Lopez to another foot surgery, the Nets were embarrassed at home on Christmas for the second season in a row. This was a clown car, not a bandwagon! And then, after the New Year, Kidd and the Nets turned it around, finishing the season strong and sweeping the Miami Heat in the process. That alone should put you on their bandwagon! The Nets had the East’s worst defense before January, fouling teams and putting them on the line at will. Kidd went with smaller lineups featuring Paul Pierce at power forward and Kevin Garnett at center, continuing to cede free throws and rebounds while forcing turnovers at a higher rate than any team in the league. The offense also got better shots, led by All-Star small forward Joe Johnson, while guards Deron Williams and Shaun Livingston picked up the pressure. The wacky lineups worked, and there is an incredible wealth of accomplished experience on the roster. This would be the strangest team to ever win a championship, and they don’t profile as a good enough playoff defense due to their complete lack of rebounding. But they’re tricky, and their owner said they were winning a championship by this season – and that’s closer than what the Knicks bandwagon will get you right now.

That does it for this year’s Bandwagon Report! Good luck holding on to one of these teams for two months!

-1SKILLZ