2014 NBA Finals: Spurs vs. Heat (The 1SKILLZ Gameplan)

You were warned before last year’s NBA Finals…

You were warned at this season’s NBA Lightweight Report…

You were even warned AFTER this season’s NBA Bandwagon Report…

The 1 with the SKILLZ is not to be messed with!

Anything other than a rematch of the 2013 NBA Finals was unacceptable! And now that incomplete contenders Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City have been shown the 3rd place consolations, we have no excuses in the NBA Finals! No locker room fights, no #FireCoach hashtags. Most importantly, no reason to doubt what I have been evaluating all year!

The same one to give you the Super Bowl Champion on Labor Day is back to break down the NBA Finals matchup between the two-time defending NBA Champion Miami Heat and the defending Western Conference Champion San Antonio Spurs.

The Spurs had a slightly tougher road to the NBA Finals this time around than last year when they lost only two games before losing in seven to the Heat. San Antonio got an unexpected challenge from the Dallas Mavericks, a team they had swept the previous two seasons. The Mavericks forced Game 7, but the Spurs dropped 119 points to finally eliminate them. Then the Spurs ran up against the upstart Portland Trail Blazers, who were eliminated in five. The Spurs looked to be in trouble against the Oklahoma City Thunder once Serge Ibaka returned from injury, but the Spurs took advantage of OKC’s simplistic and top-heavy lineup and found a way to eliminate the Thunder in six. The other four teams in the West all had their moments: The Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors had a seven game series interrupted by TMZ, the Houston Rockets should be thanked for their inconsistent defense leading to classic playoff moments, and the Memphis Grizzlies also forced a Game 7 (and a ridiculous headline). But at the end of the day, the Spurs are in the Finals, and they are accompanied by a signature video:

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat went from an NBA-best 66 wins in 2012-2013 to a 54-28 record, their most losses in the “Decision Era”. But that didn’t matter in the postseason, as they ate up their sorry conference for the fourth straight season. They ended the Bobkittens era for good, sweeping the offensively-challenged Charlotte Bobcats. The Heat beat a team with a higher payroll in the Brooklyn Nets, who could not capitalize on their regular season sweep of the Heat by losing in five games in the semifinals. Then the Heat put the Indiana Pacers in their place for the third straight season, eliminating the top seed in the East in six games. The other four teams in the East had some moments: the Chicago Bulls can always fall back on the all-powerful #WithoutRose excuse, the Washington Wizards finally won a playoff series, the Toronto Raptors lost the most thrilling Game 7 of the playoffs so far, and the Atlanta Hawks blew the least predictable Game 7 of the playoffs. But at the end of the day, the Heat are in the Finals, and they are accompanied by a signature video:

So now we’re… back. Unlike the 2012-2013 regular season when the Spurs and Heat took turns resting stars and playing competitive games, the two teams blew each other out this year. The Heat won at home in January 113-101, led by Chris Bosh’s 24 points. The Spurs had Othyus Jeffers filling in for Kawhi Leonard in that one, while the Heat brought a rehabbing Dwyane Wade off the bench behind Ray Allen. In March, the Spurs won at home 111-87, led by Tim Duncan’s 23 points, in what stands as Miami’s largest defeat of the season. That matchup may be a more accurate look at how the two teams will play each other at least from a personnel standpoint, as Leonard and Danny Green started that game for San Antonio, while Wade started for Miami. Including last year’s Finals, the Heat are 9-5 against the Spurs since The Decision.

Let’s look at the breakdown:

HEAT PERIMETER OFFENSE vs. SPURS PERIMETER DEFENSE

The Heat perimeter attack starts and ends with LeBron James. While James isn’t winning scoring titles, he is still a supreme offensive weapon capable of beating a defense in a number of ways.  Most notably, James is the only player in this series averaging at least five free throw attempts a game in the playoffs. Of course, the Spurs happen to be a top-five team in terms of keeping foes off the free throw line, so look for them to try and save points. Dwyane Wade is still an All-Star, but his relatively unpredictable performances make him something of an X-Factor these days. Still, Wade’s strong ballhandling and playmaking skills combine with his strength and touch inside of 15 feet to complement James. Wade only attempted five free throws total against the Spurs in two games this season, so it will be interesting to see if he has a new level of aggression for them in the Finals. Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green will provide enough length to contest James and Wade to start games. Though the Heat are known for playing strongly perimeter-oriented lineups, they are a middle-of-the-pack three-point shooting team. James (116/306, 38 percent) and Ray Allen (116/309, 38 percent) shot nearly identical percentages from three, while Chris Bosh has increased his three-point output to place fourth on the team in makes (74/218, 34 percent). Point guards Mario Chalmers (34 percent) and Norris Cole (35 percent) will also take 2-3 threes, while the Heat may continue starting Rashard Lewis (aka, the Black Mike Miller) at power forward. The Spurs allowed the fewest three-pointers made and attempted this past season. This will be a challenging matchup for both teams. Advantage: Draw/Heat

HEAT INTERIOR OFFENSE vs. SPURS INTERIOR DEFENSE

The Spurs were the top defensive team in the West, a notable feat considering the fact that their schedule was weighted with more top-ten offensive squads. Including the Spurs, eight of the NBA’s top-ten offensive teams were West teams, with the exceptions being the Toronto Raptors (10th) and the Heat (5th). For the second straight season, the Heat led the league in field goal percentage, becoming the first team since the 2008-2009 Suns to make at least half their field goal attempts for the season. James, Wade, and Bosh all made at least 55 percent of attempts inside the arc this past season, so the Spurs will be challenged at the rim. Bosh must be aggressive, as he can build on his strong play against the Spurs this season (19/26 from the field in two games). Lewis’ addition to the starting lineup could allow Bosh to assert himself around the basket more. Tim Duncan had another season where he had more blocked shots than fouls, and he is still capable of protecting the rim at an elite level. It will be interesting to see who joins him in the starting lineup. The Heat eliminated Tiago Splitter from the NBA Finals last year, and the return of Serge Ibaka to the Conference Finals also sent Splitter to the bench. Splitter wasn’t a total disaster in his lone game against the Heat this season, and he could come off the bench to match up with Heat reserve big Chris Andersen, a 64 percent shooter from the field and Miami’s top offensive rebounder. While Boris Diaw isn’t a strong rebounder, the Heat are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league. Bosh is extremely key here. There aren’t many big men that Bosh has an athletic advantage over, but Duncan is one of them. If the Heat give him a featured role, it could really help stress the San Antonio defense. Advantage: Draw/Heat

HEAT CONTROL vs. SPURS PRESSURE

The Spurs aren’t great at forcing turnovers, ranking in the bottom third of the NBA in that department. Most of that is due to the fact that point guard Tony Parker is one of the worst at his position at getting steals. However, the Heat are one of the worst five teams in the league when it comes to turning the ball over. The Miami ball movement is just as good as San Antonio’s, and that was on display in January as they racked up a 28:14 assist-turnover ratio against the Spurs. However, Leonard had five steals in his game against Miami in March, as the Heat had a 25:20 assist-turnover ratio in a loss. Leonard is by far San Antonio’s most disruptive defensive force. Leonard will have help getting steals with Green and Ginobili, while James and Wade will assist the Miami point guards offensively. Advantage: Draw/Spurs

HEAT PRESSURE vs. SPURS CONTROL

The Heat lack physicality defensively while their lineups are skewed towards their offense. The one thing they do defensively better than any team in the NBA is force turnovers. And though the Spurs have an All-Star point guard and a world renown sense of ball movement, that doesn’t exempt the Spurs from being occasionally careless with the basketball. That was on full display in last year’s Finals, specifically the game where Ginobili had eight turnovers. James and Chalmers recorded over 100 steals each this past season, and Wade would have reached that mark had he played in half of the games he missed. A lot is being made of Parker’s health, but Parker’s unimpressive 1.7 assists-per-turnover rate this postseason suggests that the Spurs would be taking some good with a limited role for him. In any case, Miami will turn up the activity in the passing lanes, though there will be games where the Spurs will be a beat ahead of the Heat pressure. Advantage: Draw/Heat

HEAT INTERIOR DEFENSE vs. SPURS INTERIOR OFFENSE

For the first time in five years, the Miami Heat did not finish in the top-ten defensively (11th). The only teams that have won titles without a top-ten defense are the 1994-1995 Rockets (12th) and the 2000-2001 Los Angeles Lakers (21st), both teams that were defending championships like Miami is. The Heat were a top-ten defense last season despite grabbing the fewest rebounds in the league, so that issue isn’t the major one for Miami. The main drop came in field goal defense, as they went from top-ten in 2012-2013 to middling in 2013-2014. Just as Bosh must be aggressive offensively, the Spurs need Duncan to be a force inside. It is not outside the question for Duncan to average 20 and 10 against Miami in this series. Diaw and Splitter aren’t great athletes (Splitter had 32 dunks this past season, Diaw only four), but they have been great around the basket this season, and they must take advantage of the presence of Lewis, Shane Battier, or Udonis Haslem when Bosh or Andersen are pulled from the hoop. The Spurs aren’t strong on the offensive boards, and Splitter’s limited playing time won’t improve that much. The Spurs should be focused on allowing Duncan’s twin performances of 9/13 from the field to carry over.   Advantage: Spurs

HEAT PERIMETER DEFENSE vs. SPURS PERIMETER OFFENSE

I dropped my Formula in January that lays out a blueprint for prospective championship teams. Three teams hit all the marks for The Formula. Those three teams have something in common now: they’re all eliminated. The Raptors didn’t make it out of the first round (again), the Clippers were beaten in the second round, and the Thunder were taken out by the Spurs. The Spurs’ offense defies The Formula in multiple ways. Their best offensive player and leading scorer is an All-Star point guard, they have zero players who get to the line at least five times a game, their top three scorers don’t combine to average 50 points per game, and they are trying to become the first team in NBA history to win a championship while shooting more threes than free throws. The Spurs attempted the fewest free throws in the league this past season, and that’s a problem (it’s also why I feel like Duncan needs extra touches in this series). However, the Spurs are so good offensively because they can really shoot. They were the most efficient three-point shooting team in the league, led by three players who made at least 100 threes while shooting at least 40 percent from deep: Green, backup point guard Patty Mills, and Gary Neal replacement Marco Belinelli. In addition to those three, the Spurs have up to five players who hit may be asked to hit threes at a decent rate (Ginobili, Leonard, Diaw, Matt Bonner, and Parker, all who shoot at least 35 percent from three). The Heat weren’t great at defending threes this season (36 percent allowed, 18th in NBA), but last year’s NBA Finals changed once they decided to stop giving Danny Green target practice. Green has to atone for shooting 2/19 in Games 6 and 7, while the Heat may be comfortable allowing Leonard to shoot. The Spurs can be lethal, and Parker is one of the feared scorers in the league at the point guard position. However, they will live and die on the jumper, and the Heat can line up strong on-ball defenders on the perimeter in James, Wade, Chalmers, Cole, and Battier. Advantage: Draw/Spurs

HEAT SPECIAL TEAMS vs. SPURS SPECIAL TEAMS

This year’s Lightweight Report introduced the concept of “Basketball Special Teams“. The Spurs are a slightly better free throw shooting team (79 percent, 4th) than the Heat (76 percent, 14th). The Heat are one of the most feared fastbreak teams in the league because of James and Wade. Both teams have strong transitional defenders, as James and Leonard both have some notable chasedown blocks on their résumés. The Spurs will be looking to push the pace as much as possible, especially if Parker is healthy, while the Heat walk the ball up the court unless there is a clear break opportunity. While the Spurs have famously exercised their depth in an effort to keep all of their players under 30 minutes a game during the regular season, the Heat have an experienced bench full of players who have been asked to start games from time to time. Of course, the Spurs rely a lot more on their bench. Advantage: Draw/Spurs

HEAT COACHING vs. SPURS COACHING

San Antonio’s Gregg Popovich is the longest tenured head coach in the four major sports, and is arguably the best. The NBA’s version of Bill Belichick, Popovich is the last coach to win the NBA’s Coach of the Year Award and then lead a team to a championship (2003). He will try and repeat that feat despite losing two assistants from last year to head coaching jobs (Mike Budenholzer, Brett Brown). Because of the talent at his disposal and the mentorship he receives from the front office, Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra is rarely put in the same category as Popovich. However, Spoelstra is 10-8 all-time versus Popovich, and his management plan for Wade is right up there with Popovich’s veteran management plans. Both coaches have shown they are flexible and strong tacticians, while managing their rosters effectively and winning consistently against worthy competition. Spoelstra has already shown that he is capable of winning back-to-back titles and beating a Popovich-coached team for a championship. Odd as it may seem, Popovich may have more to prove in this series, as he hasn’t won a championship since the Spurs became a more perimeter and point guard oriented team. Advantage: Draw/Spurs

INTANGIBLES

Talk about motivation. The Spurs have homecourt advantage in the NBA Finals, and they are 4-0 in the NBA Finals when they have homecourt advantage. Of course, the last team Miami ran up against had homecourt advantage too, and the Indiana Pacers not only lost that advantage, they never earned that Game 7. While Dwyane Wade appears healthy for Miami, Andersen had to take a couple of games off in the Conference Finals. While the Spurs Big 3 is old, the Miami supporting cast is older. The Tony Parker ankle injury may be a cause of concern for the Spurs, though it should just encourage them to de-emphasize Parker’s role in this series. These are two of the deepest teams in the league, a credit to San Antonio general manager R.C. Buford (the 204 Executive of the Year) and Miami’s Pat Riley. People don’t realize that the Heat have missed the playoffs only three times since Riley arrived in South Beach in 1995. While the Spurs are trying to get revenge and a fifth title for the franchise, the Heat are trying to tie up San Antonio in the ring count. The Heat also have the added motivation that their three best players can all become free agents this summer. Unlike the 21st century Lakers, the Heat actually look like they enjoy playing together, though anything is possible in the NBA Finals (just ask Kevin Garnett). The Heat already showed that they aren’t too tired to make four straight NBA Finals, a feat that hadn’t been done since 1987. A team hasn’t three-peated since 2002, and the 1990s Bulls were the last Eastern Conference team to pull it off. The effort and focus alone has a chance to match last year’s NBA Finals. Advantage: Draw/Heat

BOTTOM LINE

Yikes, here we go again. Out of my nine matchups, eight of them are draws. It’s not a copout; it’s an acknowledgement that this series is that close. Both teams will win games on the road, both teams are going to blow the other out, and both teams will win games they’re not supposed to. No team has been able to beat this Miami Heat squad four times in the playoffs in three seasons! Miami is trying to become the first team since the 2005-2006 Heat to win a title against a team that won at least eight more regular season games. The Heat will also be trying to overcome their “Not Top-Ten” defense – and with that, the fact that the Spurs are by far the best offense they will have faced in over two months! The Spurs will be trying to take advantage of that Miami defense with an offense that was derailed in last year’s Finals by turnovers, missed shots, and LeBron James. Picking against a LeBron James-led squad isn’t something I’m interested in. However, I have a hard time believing that Tim Duncan can’t do what Kareem Abdul-Jabbar did at the age of 38 in 1985: win a Finals MVP award. This must be a Tim Duncan series. It will be 3-3. Game 7 will be in San Antonio. And somehow, Tim Duncan will finish the job this time. Prediction: Spurs in 7.

In the first Finals rematch since Bulls/Jazz in 1998, the Spurs are the team with homecourt advantage. The Heat are trying to be like those Bulls – steal homecourt and win a third straight NBA Finals before everyone can leave. (Ryan Hurst/Creative Commons)

-1SKILLZ